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limtex

01/21/04 6:46 PM

#195791 RE: Paul A #195772

1. Eli Harari is one of the most conservative execs in tech.

2. He has guided 04 revs to 1.5bn to 1.75bn. That is more bullish than he has ever been.

3. He konws his numbers as well as you or I and he comes over very confident unusually confident.

4. He is giving a stock split with all the comptetion that he has said will come to the market. Why take such a risk and risk his reputation? He knows the market better than the competition. The biggest competitor is already there and that is Samsung. SNDK settled a dispute with Samsung years ago and there agreemetns resulting from it.

5. The entire market knew about the competition coming as it was announced a few days ago. Eli has been saying for over 7 years that he wants to get the prices down. What the market did not know was that he would guide revenues to between $1.5bn to $1.75bn. I don't think that many people expected that level.

6. As for Gross Margins I see that as a warning to the competition. I wonder what margins they put on things for products that they are n't currently in the market for and in addition they will ahve to pay royalty and license. What Eli did not say was what revenues he expeected any competition to achieve. If very little then less margin pressure. If a lot then SNDK can compete better than any competitor but if somehow they do make inroads then they will have to pay royalty if they are SNDK owned patents.

7. Some new markets do not have predictable revenues or growth levels.

Thats just my uneducated opinion. Lets see the analysis of teh CC from some more expert than u