Replies to post #1444 on Idenix Pharmaceuticals (IDIX)

[DewDiligence]

Baraclude Sales Ramp 2005-Present

2Q05 $5M (US launch Apr 05)
3Q05 $2M
4Q05 $5M
1Q06 $11M (China launch Feb 06)
====
First year on market: $23M


2Q06 $14M
3Q06 $22M (Japan, partial EU launches Jul 06)
4Q06 $36M
1Q07 $45M (added to AASLD guidelines Feb 07)
====
Second year on market: $117M


My sales forecast for Baraclude’s third year on the market is $320M. BMY will report 2Q07 Baraclude sales this Thursday (July 26).

[DewDiligence]

>I see the move to Viread and the downplay of Hepsera as a possible positive to telbivudine... (am I off base?)<

The supplanting of Hepsera by Viread is neutral for IDIX, IMO.

Bad for IDIX: Viread is a better drug than Hepsera and hence a stronger rival to Tyzeka for monotherapy.

Good for IDIX: Viread is a better drug than Hepsera and hence it raises the probability that Ns+Nt combination therapy will be successful. This, in turn, will increase the overall number of HBV patients who are treated.