Zeev -- just a couple thoughts/comments here.
First off, the Dow made a new high for the move today. I don't see a spike to 10652 last Thursday. The high was 10592, which became a double top yesterday (okay, yesterday was .15 higher) and was broken right before the close today for a new high for the move. So you missed the top by 8 points so far. Bad boy <g>. Presonally, a dash up Tuesday morning to your target doesn't seem impossible.
Second off, I see a ton of charts that are simply not telling me we fall off that hard. Hey, we are far overdue a correction, but there are a lot of serious breakouts of longer term patterns. Even small stuff like AMCC -- that broke out of a 7 MONTH trading range last week. There's lots of stocks like that, big and small, and I don't think they'll all give up their breakouts without more up. The bios also seem pointed up here, and you know how they can start running. Yes, most things should consolidate those gains, and that should give us a nice pullback. But a trip below 2K would really surprise me here.
While the put call was low and has been, I've also noticed that open interest in the QQQ puts keeps building. Last week, Jan QQQ calls outnumbered puts at 36,37,38. By yesterday, however, puts out numbered calls at all those strikes, despite the low put/call (including QQQ). The open interest in Feb puts has grown, too, with puts over calls at 37 on down, and 38 and 39 within shouting distance. Since March, these big batches of QQQ puts have seemed to put a floor under the market. At some point, that'll fail. I just don't know when.
I wonder if your whole scenario couldn't just be condensed? We skip your first decline. Get your late January one, but still get a higher late February high? Then we still get your March decline? I guess no one will know until we first see if we get a pullback...and then see how it looks.
Nice trading in NVEC, btw. I am so terrified of that stock, I can't even look at your posts on it til after hours <g>
the freep
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