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Replies to #49993 on Biotech Values
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p3analyze

07/21/07 9:10 AM

#50001 RE: DewDiligence #49993

I agree with everything you said. Thanks.

I have a feeling this is going to be dependent on how Rick Pazdur feels about the Satraplatin package.

I think big boys always know how FDA thinks - the short interest was at a meagre 8.9%, even with yesterday's 8.2 million trading volume, I would be surprised if the short interest comes anywhere near that for DNDN.

So I think Pazdur, after defeating Provenge, really wants to approve Satraplatin.

If he wants to approve, he would go the extra mile of steering the panel members toward the right direction. A case in example is Alimta's lung ODAC where his intervention was phenomenal.

A quick glance tells me the only real Prostate Cancer expert on the panel is Maha Hussain - I could be wrong, the rest are more like breast cancer specialists, because I think the focus of this ODAC is Lilly's EVISTA. I think Maha is going to vote yes - because she has shown that she could ignore the OS data before. Since she is the expert on subject matter of prostate cancer - and she used to be the chair for ODAC (not this time, she chairs the breast cancer session, interesting, isn't it?), the members would listen to her.

Since there is no statistical issue, David Harrington would vote yes.

With all of them in alignment, is there any reason why it should not receive ODAC blessing?

Finally, would you say that in the immediate aftermath of approval, the stock would attempt at a run of 52-week hi?