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positiontrader

01/14/04 5:28 PM

#5535 RE: was Steve #5534

Steve,

Your shorts may pay off tomorrow.It may or may not then be time to exit.

Regards

Marc
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Namiar

01/14/04 5:38 PM

#5536 RE: was Steve #5534

Continuing to pick up nickels and dimes. Today another 0.3%.

But my model is no where near OB right now. These last 2 days couple with Friday have served to put me at a slightly OB state, which is just about average for a Bull market.

It would probably take 2 days to get to the OB point where I would reduce or even go short. On the flip side, a decent down day will likely put me into the first scalp of the year.

A "scalp" is something of a casino game as I play it. Once entering a scalp position, I will increase the stakes every day until the scalp (OS condition) is off. I will increase the ante for up to 5 days, or until 200% is reached. If the OS conditions continue, I simply wait with my 200% long until the OS is abated, and that is when I cash out. This strategy has a decent success rate for me, but may be a little slow and not reward sufficiently (2-2.5% gains on average) for astute traders.