OT Weekend biotech musings... I still like GNVC, although the negative is it could be dead money till '09 as the TNFerade trial does not speed up. At the final analysis, the GNVC story has its longs and shorts; I'm a long, but dead money and dilution will reign over the land, and the company will be conservative and enroll 'too many' rather than 'too few' patients to ensure stastical analysis will be met for their designated endpoint which is 12 month's survival, but it is the all important overall survival that will rule the day. In short, I'm very long the TNFerade story, and feel that Garran and many others simply are not right on GNVC. I don't own a single share as I'm sure there will be time to build up my stake. Cortex has taught me something: you can always buy biotech too early. As Dew correctly pointed out many monts ago... TNFerade is being tested in limited metastatic disease, but I think there will be both testing and ultimately usage in distant metastatic disease.
I like APPA Pharma as a value play... it could be a nice 5 bagger if all goes well with their phase III.
I like Cortex(obviously).
I like DSCO but I'm scared. Will the FDA approve DSCO's glitchs? "The hatch just blew" excuse won't work again. If the FDA signs off, all will be forgiven and DSCO will take off. There is a metaphor for cortex with FDA woes, but twice removed, since the FDA issue at hand is with CX717 not the manufacture of all ampakines. By contrast, DSCO has scientific merits of a best in class drug with phase III data behind her, but they must get past their FDA glitch(es).
I like Neuren Pharma traded on the Aussie exchange, but it trades down a percent or two each day, making me wonder if somebody knows something I don't. It is a TBI/CABG cognitive improvement will multiple mechanisms of action but little mechanisms of funding. You can buy it on through Everbank and its 37 Aussie cents or 30 US cents or so a share, so it's like buying an option on an option.
All these companies are off everyone's radar at this point. None are connected to sub-prime woes or future global financial worries. All will garner phase II and III data/some FDA approval decisions from early '08 through late '10.... just in time to cash out before the capital gains tax cuts expire on the evening of December 31 2010.
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