Steve I'm a member of Decision Point and they say that we are in a bull market and when your in a bull market you will only be successful picking a top 20-25% of the time. Picking a bottom is much easier and is 80%+. VERY IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER THIS.
I use leveraged mutual funds long then go short without leverage when the Namo Stoch 14-3 crosses down below 80 and NOT BEFORE. In fact many say you a crazy to go short in a bull market or even a strong bull within a bear.
Don't know if this helps but keep up the good work.