ASPV
This news obviously diminishes if not kills the chances for Cell-cept to be approved for lupus nephritis. Less risk now, less potential gain. So, Aspreva's value becomes easier to figure---pretty much based on its huge cash horde and positive cash flow until its patent protection runs out in 2008 or 2009.
IMO, any upside will depend on two potential developments:
1) Significant off label use in lupus nephritis. After all, the data seems to show that Cell-cept is at least as beneficial as cyclophosphamide, the standard of care, though not superior. Since it is already an approved drug and reportedly enjoying significant off-label use, the data will probably increase use off label.
2) An answer to the question of what the company will do with all that cash (probably > $300 million and growing) burning a hole in their pocket.
Urche
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