What is your own point estimate, if you don’t mind going on record? T.i.a
I reserve the right to change my mind as I nail down facts and perform a sim or two. But I would pick a final endpoint after correction by CR of HR>1.40 albeit with fairly wide uncertainty bounds.
Reasons:
a) The Halabi data indicates that the patients are less sick than 9901. Could they game it? Absolutely - but it would be harder to do because there are a lot less knobs than on CR. Note that they are still enrolling so i am sure that the value will come down - hence part of the reason for my fairly low HR relative to 9901.
b) Connected reason - the number of patients who are almost certainly a lot less sick is probably >100. So they should help the HR.
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