Replies to post #48779 on Biotech Values

[DewDiligence]

>What, in your opinion, is the functional source of the phenomenon of program survival bias? Is it as simple as the lack of double blind controls?<

Program-survival bias comes from the fact that phase-2 trials which perform badly don’t progress to phase-3.

There are other reasons why phase-2 results may not be reproduced in phase-3 that pertain to such matters as blinding and patient selection; however, these reasons are distinct from program-survival bias and are easier to analyze on a case by case basis. Regards, Dew

[DewDiligence]

Say a bowler is bowling practice games where no one but the bowler himself cares about the score. If the bowler does not have a score of at least 100 by the fifth frame, he abandons frames 6-10, discards the partial score, and proceeds to the next game.

In 50 completed games, the bowler’s average comes out to 226. What would you say the bowler’s real average is?