Clarification on Kurlak
Geez, does anybody bother to read his notes before offering a critique on his calls? The guy nailed the semi bottom last October almost to the exact penny. But it was the rationale and big-picture perspective and reasoning that really mattered to an investor. He defined the upside potential vs. downside risk and it was a great risk-reward. Period. He also correctly distinguished between sub-sectors in semi-land.
Anyone following the guy also knows he began taking some off the table by late fall too. He was early, but again, his reasoning was solid in setting up a good risk-reward parameter.
This current call is NOT a call on the entire semi sector, nor does it say anything about equipment stocks. Here, he's trying to identify what subsectors will be outperformers ahead. He's concluded this cycle will be unlike many in that the commodity producers will come after the premium producers rather than before, and he gave a solid rationale for it. He also gave the substance of his assumptions that load into the earnings model that leads him to the conclusion as well. Again, what he's saying is that MU has a better risk-reward profile than the premium semi names and backed it up with a solid analysis.
He may not be right, but it's well reasoned and solid. And again, the risk-reward looks pretty darned good if you can be objective about it.
BTW, Zeev, just like Kurlak was calling for a 12-18 double on INTC from when he urged buys at $14, he's looking for doubles in select commodity producers from these levels. No way in heck would he be recommending an investor expect a triple in INTC to $96 when he was suggesting reducing the position when it was in the mid-$20s.
If we're going to ding the guy, we ought to read the full set of his pieces through this cycle, then ding him on the facts, not make it up.
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