Replies to post #186268 on Zeev's Turnips Patch-No Politics (ZEEV)

[Zeev Hed]

That is the point, the P/C ratio itself was closer to what we get at bottoms, and the high level "worried" you for the shorts, yet, that high P/C ratio coincided smack on with a local top. That may indicates that looking at P/C ratios only is not sufficient, and indeed you had other indicators (as I had) indicating a local top. The same applies here, when we got one reading (call it "intraday" since we had only half a session) which was unusually low, yet, it may not indicate a local top.

[market_watcher]

Now, back to my point that the 21 and 10 dma are bearish on the equity only p/c. It still stands.

I also pointed out the equity p/c ratio was looking extreme after looking at the vto report page last week. The problem remains that the 'average' amount of time and points that ensue after such extreme readings varies considerably. Even assuming that one has the proper level marked as 'extreme', which is in itself a major assumption, from the vto charts, I doubt that one could identify a top reliably within a two-day, 2% window.

This is just from eyeballing the chart and I don't have the numbers in front of me to crunch them, so I don't want to be held to this statement in a way that I would agree to be held to a statement that came from closer analysis. If I had the data, I'd do the analysis.

If we really are in for bigger gains ahead, the June 2003 low in the equity-only P/C ratio may not hold.

Are you sure that it will or are you allowing for the possibility that we could see below .54 on the 21day equity-only ma?