I don't know why you interpret this as " falling back", I have stated many times that the model relies on many parameters and that no single parameter can give with any assurance. On 12/3 (Naz hitting 2000 on a print basis) you noted that the P/C ratio at .97 was concern to the bears (#msg-1859882), and that was exactly the last top, showing that this indicator alone is simply not enough. On the same date, I expected at least 150 Naz points decline (#msg-1861286), we got only 113 (the low of 1887 seven days later on 12/10), showing that even when using a plethora of indicators, it is tough to get every call right. Right now, the P/C, while important, need to show a sequence of bad days well under .40 and maybe even an extreme printing of just around .3 to overcome the many other positives in the market.
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