Hi Ispro,
I am not and have never ruled out ETS in combination with FDE. My concern is with ETS with TPM but without FDE.
You can never rule standalone ETS out completely. But a year's worth of nos is quite persuasive of minimal demand for ETS in its current state. Hot cakes sell fresh. I'd have expected to see broad, shallow sales at a minimum by the end of Q1 (say twenty companies buying 1,000 units, or 40 buying 500). A single medium-large order (of, say, 10-20,000 units) won't persuade me everything is going forward in an impressive way. But one huge order in Q1 or Q2 probably would roll me over (50,000 upgrades or more), especially if it was a nuclear organisation at the head of an important supply chain.
Assuming nothing much happens now and we wait for a year or two: Okay, when there's a huge number of TPMs in the market lots of dynamics change. Sure, ETS may become saleable because we've reached critical mass. But also I expect other companies to have products by then. Too much uncertainty to be interesting at this point.
I'm not worrying about things in a year or two. I'm looking at what events are material now and in the immediate future. Because this is the moment when the window is open and there's no one else in sight.
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