Replies to post #181365 on Zeev's Turnips Patch-No Politics (ZEEV)

[Gizmo]

Tel Aviv shares rise

2:00pm 12/14/03
Tel Aviv shares rise after Saddam captured By Greg Morcroft
NEW YORK (CBS.MW) -- In a first indication Sunday after the capture of the former Iraq leader, shares of Israeli equities traded on the Tel Aviv Stock Exchange rose about 3 percent in the afternoon session. Stocks in Tel Aviv were active, and a total $228 million of shares changed hands. That's one of the busiest days in the exchange's history.




Gizmo

[market_watcher]

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[market_watcher]

I'm with you acelaw. I can't see any reason not to sell this news. I don't recall anyone saying during recent attacks that Saddam was masterminding them, so it isn't even really a story about taking out the brains of the Iraqi resistence, which would make it a more important geopolitical story.

Absolutely true as well on the cash flow side. I read every issue of CFO Magazine and the tone of the articles they've been printing has been negative to neutral. They recently did a cash flow analysis of the non-financial companies in the S&P 100 which concluded that the current profit run is unsustainable. This is the kind of analysis you want to be reading, as opposed to things aimed at the general investor, which is not as quantitative and technical.

Then there are the market technicals. I will watch the 1955 level that Zeev has marked as a line in the sand. I would expect that it will be taken out tomorrow, but it's still unsure.

The main reason I would consider myself bearish is the labor market. What if the only way we can get job creating in the U.S. is by offering third-world wages to applicants? A recent Business Week article told the story of a Boston-area start up doing just that and getting lots of applications for the jobs.

http://www.businessweek.com/smallbiz/content/dec2003/sb2003122_8887.htm

If U.S. workers have to start working for third-world wages, with a tiny premium thrown in for 'convenience' factors, consumption is going to plummet. Over the past year, real earnings measure by the BLS are up by .46%

This post is getting pretty far afield from the Saddam capture, but I think you're right to try and place the capture in the context of the bigger economic picture. If Zeev raises his January target from 2056 to 2093, that would mean, in a very simple way, that Saddam is worth about 37 Naz points.