Replies to post #1564 on Cobalis Corp. (fka CLSC)

[Aiming4]

Here's to CLSC and COR both rolling 1's on the binary dice for their rapidly approaching binary events.

Of the two, purely from a logic standpoint, I think COR has the lower hurdle - and COR is likely an easy double from 2.75 to 5.50 if the FDA removes the dosing limitation.

However CLSC should have more than a double in it if both its trials are a clear success.

So again, here's to success for both companies.

[gfp927z]

Randy, Objectively, Cortex's event would have to be considered to have better odds (90-95%). Cobalis I would estimate at around 60/40%. Of course with the floorless convert hanging over them, the downside in the event of failure is far worse for Cobalis. Wine will be appropriate either way though for both stocks, for the celebration, or else to drown our sorrows :o)

[ruengies3]

I'm betting heavily on both COR and CLSC.

[gfp927z]

Randy, From the graph of the first PreHistin Phase 3 results, I did some rough calculations. Of the trial's four arms, the two arms that correspond to the arms being used in the twin trials (6 weeks placebo, and 6 weeks drug) showed the best efficacy separation -

I come up with an approx 33% increase in allergy symptom scores in the placebo arm (going from roughly 7.2 to 9.6) vrs an approx 21% increase in the symptom scores in the drug arm (going from roughly 6.8 to 8.2). If we adjust for the differences in the baseline levels for each arm (an adjustment of 0.4), we can make a direct 6 week comparison of symptom scores of 9.2 (placebo) to 8.2 (drug), (the higher the number = more allergy symptoms).

In the November presentation, the CEO indicated that the FDA requires only a 10% separation between placebo and drug in allergy trials. Not being an expert in bio statistics, I was wondering which comparison would be appropriate, the ~36% reduction in the increase in symptoms between placebo and drug arms (representing the difference between the 33% increase in symptoms for placebo vrs the 21% increase in symptoms for drug), or on the other hand would it be the ~11% difference between the actual symptom scores (9.2 for placebo vrs 8.2 for drug)? Either way, the 10% criteria is met, but by the one calculation it is easily met, and by the other it is barely met.

Any ideas? Thanks.