Replies to post #181051 on Zeev's Turnips Patch-No Politics (ZEEV)

[Stormrider]

Choad,
I keep it real simple and it works. I trade the channel up and down with RYVNX and RYVYX. For the first time in several months I have taken a step back and am waiting to see which way this breaks before I commit funds. At this juncture I prefer to play it safe rather than risk giving back some stellar gains. Good luck.
Mike

[osprey]

Choad, anyone else playing rising interest rates. I think this is almost a no brainer, check the ^tnx 10 year bond yield chart.
1. coming out of a recession
2. Fed funds rate at 1% a near historic low, can't go lower.
3. dollar plummeting implies bonds should fall, yield rise. Much of the treasury bonds are owned by foreigners who are now facing currency exchange risks.

I just checked the chart for the 10 year treasury yield index, ^tnx. Since interest rate changes like any market are anticipatory, they have already rallied from 30 in june to 42. WHAT I ALSO NOTICE IS A TEXTBOOK BULL PENNANT/TRIANGLE FORMATION. Some people call this "coiling". One book states that the markets move in fits and starts, stepwise or saltatory. The chart implies that a new leg up in interest rates is imminent.

The term almost no brainer is used deliberately, there is no such thing in the markets as a no brainer. My last no brainer was medi, buy 27.20, next day 28.40, then stoppedout at 27.44, low 27, close 28. All this in two days on a no brainer!