4:20 pm : The major averages finished mixed and relatively flat Friday as investors looked lethargic closing out another impressive week of sizable gains fueled by this quarter's busiest week of earnings. Nonetheless, sellers armed with a weak GDP report, a mixed batch of earnings, and surging oil prices tried to fight the market's underlying bullish trend only to come up short, again.
As has been the case throughout the Dow's virtually unabated month-long run into record territory, gains from just a handful of blue chips were just enough to help the average finish higher for the 19th time in 21 tries.
Follow-through momentum in 3M Co (MMM 81.72 +1.27), and Honeywell (HON 54.87 +1.18) soaring 2.2% to a multi-year high, accounted for the bulk of the price-weighted index's advance; but fellow component Microsoft (MSFT 30.08 +0.98) was the day's headliner and Dow's best performer.
Last night, the tech bellwether posted a 65% jump in Q3 profits that were a record amid strong Vista sales and provided reassuring guidance.
A quiet 1.7% surge in shares of Cisco Systems (CSCO 26.99 +0.44), a suggested holding in the Briefing.com Active Portfolio, provided additional sector support. Dell (DELL 25.21 +0.30) was another tech winner, jumping 1.2% after CEO Michael Dell sent an email to the company's employees outlining steps to "re-ignite" growth.
Minimizing the tech sector's performance, though, was weakness across the board from chip stocks after Broadcom (BRCM 33.40 -1.46) said it has limited visibility into near-term results. That news ran counter to what larger competitor Texas Instruments (TXN 34.79 -0.37) said earlier in the week. The PHLX Semiconductor Sector Index surged 3.1% on Tuesday after TXN cited improved demand predicated on the end to last year's inventory correction.
The biggest surprise of the day was the economically-sensitive Industrial sector's ability to shrug off a weaker than expected advance read of 1.3% on Q1 GDP. While the data served as a reminder that the decent earnings trends for Q1 may not continue into Q2 and Q3, investors already anticipating signs of a slowdown and perhaps another round of supportive M&A news come Monday found just enough momentum to look past the dated nature of the GDP data.
The Industrial sector got its biggest lift from a 2.7% surge in Dow component General Electric (GE 36.79 +0.95), which moved after a Citigroup analyst said GE should spin off its NBC and GE Money units.
Environmental Services was the day's best performing S&P industry group (+7.6%) after Waste Management (WMI 38.21 +2.86) followed up a 19% rise in Q1 profits by raising its full-year forecasts. Construction & Farming was another source of sector support, getting a huge lift from Cummins Inc. (CMI 96.15 +10.16). The stock soared 12% to an all-time high after it handily beat expectations and boosted its FY07 profit outlook. DJ30 +15.44 NASDAQ +2.75 SP500 -0.18 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1836/1166/2.11 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1854/1392/1.40 bln
3:30 pm : The indices are off their best levels going into the close, but the Dow is still on track to close at a new all-time high for a third straight day. Even though 16 of its 30 components are still in the red, solid gains from just five blue chips (e.g. CAT +1.2%, GE +3.5%, HON +2.2%, MMM +1.6%, and MSFT +4.1%) are providing enough of an offset. They account for 47 Dow points.
Further underscoring the market's focus on large-cap names today are declines on the S&P 400 MidCap Index and Russell 2000 small-cap index; but with both closing in record territory yesterday and posting respective April gains of 4.6% and 3.8%, it hasn't been surprising to see them succumb to some modest profit taking. DJ30 +20.23 NASDAQ +4.12 R2K -0.5% SP400 -0.3% SP500 +0.30 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1812/1180/1.76 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1814/1406/1.17 bln
3:00 pm : Stocks have lost some of their momentum over the last 30 minutes but are still holding on to the bulk of their gains. The Financials sector bouncing in and out of positive territory is among the more noticeable reasons for the market's inability to press even higher.
Nonetheless, the market's resilience in the face of early profit taking, during what is shaping up to be the best monthly performances for the Dow and S&P 500 since December and October of 2003, respectively, remains commendable. Today's gains also suggest that investors may be anticipating another round of supportive M&A news come Monday. With one more day of trading before April comes to a close, the Dow is up 6.4% for the month while the S&P 500 has climbed 5.3%. DJ30 +34.50 NASDAQ +4.68 SP500 +1.97 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1698/1272/1.61 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1759/1443/1.06 bln
2:30 pm : Even though market gains remain modest in scope, the indices are extending their reach to the upside. The economically-sensitive Industrials sector's (+1.6%) ability to keep shrugging off this morning's weaker than expected GDP report and a 2.0% surge in oil prices remains very noteworthy. Sector gainers include: GE +3.3%, MMM 1.9%, CAT +1.0%, HON +2.1%, LMT +3.1%, WMI +7.4%, and CMI +15.4%.
Another noticeable reason behind the market's continued advance has been a turnaround in the more influential Financials sector. After languishing in the red all morning, the AMEX Securities Broker/Dealer Index (XBD +0.4%) recently turning the corner is providing notable leadership. DJ30 +37.52 NASDAQ +5.05 SP500 +2.34 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1779/1199/1.49 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1831/1363/986 mln
2:00 pm : Absent a catalyst throughout most of the sessions, the indices have finally broken out of their very tight trading ranges, getting a boost from, of all things, higher oil prices. Crude for June delivery is hitting fresh session highs, surging 1.9% to $66.32/bbl amid more short covering.
While oil's uptick itself is bearish for consumers, it has prompted a turnaround in the Energy sector (+0.3%) and provided another leg of support. Drillers (+2.0%) as well as Oil & Gas Equipment (+1.9%) now rank among today's top ten performing S&P industry groups. Regrettably for the bulls, though, the move higher has merely inched the S&P 500 into the green for the first time today and market gains remain minimal. DJ30 +26.9 NASDAQ +0.96 SP500 +0.67 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1737/1208/1.39 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1799/1359/902 mln
1:30 pm : More of the same for stocks as the indices remain mixed but market internals still exhibit a negative underlying tone. As reflected in the A/D line, decliners on the NYSE hold a nearly 19-to-12 edge over advancers while those on the Nasdaq hold an 18-to-11 margin.
Down volume outpacing up volume further dictates the sense of reserve on the part of buyers as the sustainability of this month's rally remains in question given more evidence that slowing economic growth may lead to downward revisions to Q2 and Q3 EPS forecasts. DJ30 +18.39 NASDAQ +0.38 SP500 -0.20 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1814/1113/1.26 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1905/1229/806 mln
1:00 pm : Stocks continue to trade with little fanfare as investors still lack a catalyst to set a more definitive tone to today's action. Be that as it may, the Dow at current levels is not only on track to close higher for the 19th time in 21 sessions, a feat that hasn't happened since the 1920s, but it is at record levels yet again.
It is worth noting, though, that 18 of the Dow 30 are posting losses and, while it would seem Microsoft's (MSFT 30.26 +1.16) 4.0% surge is the biggest reason for the Dow clinging to gains, it is actually getting more of a boost from follow-through momentum in 3M Co (MMM 82.20 +1.75). The latter's intraday advance is only half that of Microsoft but since 3M is among the price-weighted index's more expensive components, its 3M's 14-point contribution beats out MSFT's 9-point backing. DJ30 +13.00 NASDAQ -0.17 SP500 -0.82 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1806/1099/1.18 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1927/1203/736 mln
12:30 pm : No real change in the proceedings as the afternoon session gets underway. Eight of 10 sectors are still under pressure; but the Energy sector's (-0.3%)inability to take advantage of oil prices spiking to their highest levels of the day is among the more noteworthy developments within the last 30 minutes.
Crude for June delivery is up 1.3% and now hovering near the $66/bbl level as concerns about potential supply disruptions in the Middle East prompt traders to cover their shorts going into the weekend. Saudi Arabian authorities arrested 172 Islamic militants suspected of plotting attacks on the country's oil fields.DJ30 +3.49 NASDAQ +1.29 SP500 -2.20 XOI -0.7% NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1813/1077/1.09 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1926/1185/674 mln
12:00 pm : Directionless trading is the best way to describe the way stocks are languishing midday as weak economic data and mixed earnings reports leave investors questioning the sustainability of the market's recent run-up.
Such fatigue isn't all that surprising, though, given the market's sizable gains this month. During the last 20 sessions the Dow has only closed lower twice, hitting a fresh record high yesterday and logging an impressive 6.5% over that duration as blue chips continue to post better than expected earnings.
The price-weighted index's latest surprise has come from Microsoft (MSFT 30.30 +1.20), which reported a 65% jump in record Q3 profits amid strong Vista sales and provided reassuring guidance last night. In fact, Microsoft's 4.4% gain is the biggest reason why Technology (+0.4%) is among only two sectors trading higher.
Industrials (+1.0%) is the only other bright spot today from a leadership standpoint, as the sector accounts for six of today's top ten winning S&P industry groups. Environmental Services is pacing the way after Waste Management (WMI 37.93 +2.58) followed up a 19% rise in Q1 profits by raising its full-year forecasts. Industrial Conglomerates ranks in the top five after a Citigroup analyst said General Electric (GE 36.56 +0.72) should spin off its NBC and GE Money units while Construction & Farming is getting a huge lift from Cummins Inc. (CMI 99.82 +13.83). The stock is currently up nearly 16% at an all-time high after it handily beat expectations and boosted its FY07 profit outlook.
Be that as it may, an advance read on GDP showing that the U.S. economy grew at a weaker than expected 1.3% pace in Q1 (consensus 1.8%) has cast a pall over a market viewed by many as ripe for a pullback. The data have served as a reminder that the decent earnings trends for Q1 may not continue into Q2 and Q3. Even though a slowdown was widely anticipated, continued sluggish growth dampens the earnings outlook, which makes it very difficult for the market to sustain the pace of a rally that has lifted several indices to record levels of late. BTK -0.6% DJ30 +4.14 DJTA -1.1% DJUA -0.6% DOT +0.4% NASDAQ +1.11 NQ100 -0.3% SOX -1.6% SP400 -0.6% SP500 -2.34 XOI -0.5% NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1853/1043/976 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2007/1066/590 mln
11:30 am : Choppy morning action leaves stocks trading at improved levels again, but there still isn't a strong sense of conviction on either the bullish or bearish side of the aisle. The Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq are now vacillating around the unchanged mark.
Meanwhile, despite this morning's GDP report showing that consumer spending rose a healthy 3.8% in Q1, the Discretionary sector (-0.6%) is still among today's worst performing sectors as the data also showed that housing remains the biggest drag on the economy. Homebuilding (-2.3%), this year's worst performing S&P industry group (-15.6%), ranks as today's second biggest laggard. DJ30 +4.93 NASDAQ +2.32 SP500 -1.90 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1845/998/846 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2003/1045/494 mln
11:00 am : The market's recent recovery efforts have been short lived as the lack of notable sector leadership remains an obstacle the bulls can't seem to overcome. Technology remains in positive territory, but the rally in Microsoft (MSFT 30.36 +1.26), earmarking Systems Software (+3.4%) as one of the morning's best performers, can only provide so much support.
Chip stocks are selling off across the board as Broadcom (BRCM 32.98 -1.87) saying it may not see a resumption of revenue growth until the second half of 2007 brings semiconductor group's growth prospects back into question. As a reminder, the PHLX Semiconductor Sector Index surged 3.1% on Tuesday after Texas Instruments (TXN 34.60 -0.56) cited improved demand predicated on the end to last year's inventory correction. DJ30 -8.94 NASDAQ -2.15 SOX -1.8% SP500 -3.83 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1880/915/700 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1961/1015/388 mln
10:30 am : The market has rebounded within the last 30 minutes, getting a lift following an upward revision in monthly sentiment, but only enough to inch the Dow into positive territory. According to a study compiled by the University of Michigan, sentiment improved a bit in late April, inching higher to 87.1 (consensus 85.5) from 85.3 earlier in the month.
Even though the data do not correlate well with short-term consumer spending trends, the report has given the bulls something to cheer about. As an aside, it is worth pointing out that the Industrials sector's recent gain has more than doubled to 1.2% since the last update, due in large part to a 20-point spike in Cummins Inc. (CMI 104.61 +18.62). The stock is currently up nearly 22% at an all-time high after it handily beat expectations and raised its full-year outlook. DJ30 +6.65 NASDAQ +3.05 SP500 -2.11 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1593/1102/470 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1775/1103/238 mln
10:00 am : The major averages continue to trade in split fashion as eight out of 10 sectors remain negative. Fortunately for the bulls, the two sectors trading in positive territory -- Technology (+0.5%) and Industrials (+0.6%) -- are among the more influential areas on the S&P 500.
Microsoft (MSFT 30.49 +1.39) remains Tech's big winner (+4.8%) while Industrials is getting its biggest lift from a 1.1% advance in fellow Dow component General Electric (GE 36.24 +0.40) after a Citigroup analyst said GE should spin off its NBC and GE Money units. The absence of leadership from other heavily-weighted sectors like Financials, Health Care and Discretionary, though, is contributing to the bulls' uphill battle this morning to build on recent market gains. DJ30 -18.04 NASDAQ +3.06 SP500 -3.07 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1592/910/204 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1710/747/62 mln
09:40 am : The indices open mixed as investors use a Q1 GDP report that showed the worst of everything, from weaker than expected growth of just 1.3% to pricing pressures (i.e. key inflation gauge rising most in 16 years), as an excuse to lock in some of the market's recent gains. Yesterday, the Dow closed at another new record high above 13,100 while the S&P 500 came within 2 points of hitting 1,500 intraday as investors sifted through another round of better than expected earnings.
However, today's GDP report serving as a reminder that EPS estimates for Q2 and Q3 are likely to be ratcheted lower in similar fashion to Q1's early forecasts is acting as an overhang. Minimizing market losses and helping the Nasdaq cling to a small gain, though, has been Microsoft (MSFT 30.12 +1.06). The Dow component is up 3.5% after reporting a 65% jump in Q3 profits and providing reassuring guidance last night. DJ30 -27.12 NASDAQ +1.19 SP500 -3.85 NASDAQ Vol 96 mln NYSE Vol 42 mln
09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -3.7. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -4.5.
09:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -4.5. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -5.5. Still shaping up for stocks to open on a downbeat note as the disappointing GDP data serve as a reminder that the decent earnings trends for Q1 may not continue into Q2 and Q3. Even though a slowdown was widely expected and the GDP report is dated, continued sluggish growth dampens the earnings outlook, which makes it very difficult for the market to sustain the pace of the recent rally that has lifted several indices to record levels.
08:33 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -5.2. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -5.0. An advance read on GDP just showed that the U.S. economy grew at a weaker than expected 1.3% pace in Q1 (consensus 1.8%). The chain deflator -- a key inflation measure -- ticked higher to 4.0% (consensus 3.2%), the most in 16 years. The Employment Cost Index checked in at 0.8%, close to the expected rise of 0.9%. The response in stocks so far has been negative, setting the stage for an even lower start for the cash market. Bonds, though, have strengthened on the news; the 10-yr note is now up 9 ticks to yield 4.66%.
08:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -1.3. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -1.0. Futures indications are trading below fair value, suggesting stocks may open flat to slightly lower. With the Dow up 18 of the last 20 sessions and in record territory, while the S&P 500 knocking on the door of 1500, it's easy to see investors feel tempted to take some money off the table.
Meanwhile, Dow component Microsoft (MSFT) topped analysts' expectations last night with a 65% jump in Q3 profits and provided a reassuring outlook. Nonetheless, a sense the market is currently overbought and some consternation ahead of this morning's upcoming advance read on Q1 GDP (8:30 ET) are contributing to the cautious underlying tone.
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