Replies to post #45671 on Biotech Values

[Biowatch]

>it's biogen that's slowing it down on purpose.<

That could be, as BIIB has other drugs (Avonex) that could be undercut by Tysabri sales, but if Elan had their act together they could market it on their own.

Disclaimer: I own BIIB and used to own ELN but sold it years ago. And I don't think that biases my opinion.

[Stop at 2]

> "biogen that's slowing it down on purpose."


Not sure how quickly Biogen is following thru, but here's an excerpt from a Leman Brothers report dated 4/17/07:

Tysabri remains the most important focus for BIIB, and with FDA accepting the Crohn’s Disease filing, the possibility of a CD approval before year-end could lead to upside in 2008. Furthermore, a recently initiated plasma exchange study and the Alnylam RNAi initiative signify BIIB’s commitment to generate data to assist the management of the likely cases of PML that could begin to crop up by year-end. In MS, BIIB will initiate head-to-head studies of Tysabri and other first-line MS agents, in addition to exploring opportunities beyond oncology. Recall that Tysabri did not work in Rheumatoid Arthritis.

[masterlongevity]

Biogen has 7 products either approved or in Phase III for MS. They are not fully committed to tysabri and are clearly hedging their bets.

Although the tysabri data are really amazing, I think the market potential is diminished for a couple of reasons.

1)they have lost a lot of time in which competitors are catching up. Rituxan and FTY720 ph ii data are pretty positive and they are both far along in phase III

2) neuros are clearly hesitant to use tysabri at this point and it's not clear if they will change rapidly

3) copaxone is really safe and cheap and keeps putting out reasonably positive data