re off label market, additional numbers
i just realised i left out one step of my thinking in my earlier post which might be relevant to the question of off label market size to you though: among those 4000 university hospital ICU patients, I have 50 that get antithrombin and 30 that by ICD code might be HD or AD, my assumption (based on prevalence data of HD and what else is wrong with them) is that it is AD for all or most of these 30 patients. These patients were randomly selected among all incoming ICU patients entering these ICUs (mainly surgical, but also internal medicine and neuro ICUs) within the study period of 2 months in 2005 to provide a reasonably representative snapshot of care during a particular (random within the year) point in time.
So, extrapolating wildly, let's assume I have 1 patient among those with HD, that leaves me 29 patients with AD who got antithrombin and another 20 on top of it receiving antithrombin which probably do not fall into either the HD or AD category since more than half of all patients in this database came from centers of care with PDMS systems which automatically assign (lots of ) ICD codes and not just one or two main ones. So, taking these numbers with a pinch of salt, the potential off label market in German hospitals does not look insignificant compared to the HD indication, provided Atryn is priced reasonably (see previous post) and provided it is marketed well (personal view for Germany: don't mention the cuddly goats but focus on a competitive price).