Replies to post #6842 on AMD strictly moderated (AMD)

[drjohn]

Well most thought barcelona was going to be available in some numbers by this time, it now looks like it may not even be a factor untill 2008. Giving intel the high ground for over 18 months is never a good idea.

[Elmer Phud]

As it turned out views from posters like you, Elmer, IMHO, Alan, chipguy, etc. were if anything conservative in light of what has actually happened.

Y'all saw the writing on the wall LONG before most. Well done.


Thanks for your kind words but it was actually pretty obvious. The real question is why didn't the analysts see it as well?

They saw AMD slip every schedule multiple times, just like we did. They saw the paper launches. They saw the lame taskmanager demo in January then nothing since. Yet:

They still believe Barcelona will be out mid year and ramp.

They still believe Barcelona will be 40% faster than Intel's then available Quad core.

They still believe AMD will have 45nm production in 1H'08.

[wbmw]

Spaarky, thanks. I think Intel's recovery and effective way they competed with AMD just goes to show how efficient and competent Intel is as a semiconductor company. I've known that for a long time, and have structured my investment accordingly. It was pretty painful as Intel had to work its way through the Prescott design, but with that behind them, it's clear that the driving force behind the company still remains. I think that Intel has the ability to distance themselves from AMD, and that AMD will have to redefine their business model if they want to survive as a company.

By the way, see my post to Maui on the other thread if you want to see my opinion in terms of longer term INTC growth.

[mmoy]

I concur.

I was able to shift my bias to short AMD/long INTC in time to profit from the changeover. Always better to swallow your pride
than empty your trading account.