With economic data and earnings news generally good, there's little doubt the market can continue to move gradually higher, said Richard A. Dickson, senior market strategist at Lowry's Research Reports in Palm Beach, Fla. But it remains vulnerable to a plethora of external factors, such as the price of oil, the strength of the dollar and global terrorism concerns.
"There's a lot of things that are positive going on, but there's a lot out there that could change it in a hurry," Dickson said. "This is not the Goldilocks economy that we saw five years ago."
But Dickson also expressed concern about the swelling demand for small-cap technology stocks, which have led the rally since March. With so much uncertainty, he said, it's not clear how much longer this group can hold its momentum.
"The thing that amazes me most is that the same kinds of stocks that led the market in '98 and '99 seem to be leading the market again," Dickson said. "It's like, have investors learned nothing at all? How many times do they have to go out and get slaughtered? I don't understand why they are heading toward this same precipice."
The tech-dominated Nasdaq is still down more then 61 percent from its all-time high of 5,048.62, reached March 10, 2000. The Dow is about 15 percent off of its highest point, 11,722.98, reached Jan. 14, 2000, and the Standard & Poor's 500 index is 30 percent shy of its peak, 1,527.46, reached March 24, 2000.
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