I don't think that the HR from 02B is going to be anywhere near the 1.7 that 01 showed.
I agree that this is likely - sicker patients among other things.
But, as a way of guaging your beliefs, would you take a bet on it's being stat sig using its predefined analysis? I'd give 90% odds of that. And you would give...? (And I'd give virtual >95% odds of being on the right side and p<0.3)
going over all the papers again, I have to say that I have changed my stance on this
What caused you to change your mind? I didn't see anything in the briefing docs that you didn't predict (your cynicism was more correct - I was, apparently, too naive) aside from the CVAs. And the CVAs have been blown up way beyond reality (thanks the Scher's completely incompetent letter).
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