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Replies to #832 on Justa's Dive Bar
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chainik

04/14/07 9:16 AM

#833 RE: Ace Hanlon #832

For now, gold and HUI are likely to follow the general market. This should make them easier to trade.

One potential problem for the market is rising rate on 10 Y T-note (you mentioned it many times before). TNX is 4.76 now. Based on COT, my best guess is higher rates down the road (Saville mentioned this as well). TNX above 5 and SPX > 1500 will make stocks very expensive relative to bonds. Similar situation happened in spring 2006, and this high stock/bond ratio served as a good early warning sign of a coming top. I'll be watching this ratio.

But let's get breakout first :) In two weeks, my silly WAG (g)

I bought QID yesterday at the close, couldn't resist :)