Gold: 90% long now (one sell last week, HMY 15.62). I expect much higher prices in a year or two. The rest are WAGs (minor weakness within a week or so, a rally to HUI 400 in a couple of months followed by a deep correction).
General market. Really only one prediction: higher prices in a couple of months. I've been staying 90-110% long, shorting only very overbought market (QID). This is still the plan.
The rest are again WAGs (minor weakness in a week or two before a genuine breakout; probably a big drop this year (>10% in SPX) with 20-30% correction in high betas like Asia).
I will switch to cash/short bias only when I see a reversal in COT, P/Cs, odd lot short sales, sentiment surveys etc. At the top there should be a lot of bs about goldilocks, 3rd year of presidential cycle, a lot of Abbey, a lot of garbage about unstoppable bull etc. I think we will see this stupidity.
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