Replies to post #44772 on Biotech Values

[lumpy9200]

AMLN/Werber

Dew, with all due respect, Yaron Werber has been bearish on Amylin for what seems like forever. With every positive news release over the years, he comes out with a negative spin (not unlike Aschoff and DNDN).

"Analyst Yaron Werber said a survey shows physicians use Merck's Januvia before Byetta, and could switch to a once-a-day liraglutide drug from Novo Nordisk AS if studies show the drug is safe and effective. He lowered his estimates for Byetta sales and cut his price target for Amylin stock to $33 from $37."

Werber already predicting a switch before another drug has been proven to be safe or effective? The survey cited by Werber (about Januvia) tallied 35 doctors, if I'm not mistaken. Not a huge sampling. At some point, Werber has to give Byetta its due. Byetta may not be the blockbuster (yet) that I thought it would be, but the combination of effective treatment plus weight loss makes it a formidable barrier to new treatments.

JMHO, as always.

Best regards,
Geoff

[randychub]

Byetta - I would wager to guess most Docs who have patients on byetta who are doing well, most of whom are overweight, will not switch drugs.

Also patients on byetta may not be able to switch to Januvia.

R