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Replies to #514 on The Contrarian
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aim hier

04/07/07 9:41 AM

#515 RE: extelecom #514

ET, you are right, bad, scary news sells, good news doesn't.

I saw many examples in my business career of successful people believing what benefitted them personally. When they encountered information that was threatening, they ignored or 'forgot' it. Do you think tobacco company executives really were open to believing that smoking might be responsible for killing their customers?

Global warming is another area of interest. I'm a sceptic. Perhaps the scaremongers will prove to be right, but I don't think they have made their case yet. However, it is widely reported that there is virtually total consent by the scientific community that global warming is human caused and will be catastrophic to mankind. Now imagine that you are a climatologist in government or academia. If global warming is indeed the greatest threat before mankind, your knowledge and expertise may contribute to the preservation of our species and the saving of much of earth's lifeforms. There is a great likelihood that governmental funding will be steadily increasing. If the theory is fallacious, your field is just one more obscure, boring specialty. You aren't going to be invited to cocktail parties, let alone receive government grants. This bias is much more subtle than this paragraph might suggest, but is, nonetheless, a powerful bias, particularly when peer pressure begins to coalesce as a bloc. When mavericks begin to find themselves locked out of tenure, grant proposals, etc., they begin to see the evidence supporting the theory and ignoring everything else as 'noise'.