Replies to post #7627 on Nymet Holdings Inc. (fka NYMH)

[poor_papa]

Thanks rrm,

Investors need info like that, and similar info about the biofuels plant.

Without having much idea about what revenues the plant will or could generate, it is hard to estimate what the pps should be here.

I have a feeling that it is pretty oversold, however.

I'd also like to re-iterate that whoever helped with the plant financing probably looked at everything with a fine-tooth comb, and they gave it a green light. That means a lot to me, even if I haven't seen the numbers myself.

(Finally, let's hope that we are not looking at "worst case share issuance," although it is a possibility to be prepared for...)

[stargrazor]

you forgot the new gold mine plus the radio stations and the bio fuel plant, if you could calculate that into the figures what will the share price really be worth, not 8 cents for sure and also your calculations are only for the gold and not all the other precious metals, platnuim, siver, copper, im sure just these would more than pay all the costs, production, mining, insurance, wages and others, platnuim is vary valuble, it is just unbleavable that the share price is this low, got to buy more for sure, not trying to pump this, I think Perihelion is grossly under-valued, john beebe has done everything in favor of the share holders and the company,im in for the long run,I think some share holders over reacted to nagative speculation and sold off, go get em beebe I want a maza rx8 this year.

[stargrazor]

Hey RRM great job on the caculations, if you could try to calculate all the other metals and assets here in to the picture, just a low ball figure would be nice if possible, im not vary good at calculating but know a good thing when I see it.

[skt]

RRM your calculation $8.20-13.12 per share,looks right, I have a question, Production costs of $250/oz (including any environmental set aside)out of 660$/oz is little too high, can u imagine finished gold itself was 250/oz few years back, isnt it too high?

Just like oil which is $65 per barrel but cost of getting it out of earth and refining always remain same around $10-15 per barrel for last couple of years.

RRM can you do similar calculation for bio-diesel and the radio-station? this will help other investors a lot, many dont know mathematics, they only understand numbers.

[Ubertino]

RRM - correction:

Net revenue in ground
$628,751,400.00 - $255,590,000.00 = $408,944,000.00

Should read:
$664,534,000.00 - $255,590,000.00 = $408,944,000.00

[rrm_bcnu]

Revised Numbers...corrected

Assumptions
1. The property we are discussing is the Patent Claim #5797 located in Box Elder County, Utah.
2. 80% of the available gold can be recovered.
3. Production costs of $250/oz (including any environmental set aside).
4. A standard gold producer forward EPS multiple of 5.0-8.0.


Data Assumptions
1,277,950 ounces of gold @ $650/oz. equals $830,667,500.
(Gold Spot $664.83 at this writing)

Recoverable amount = 80%
1,277,950 x .80 = 1,022,360 oz

Total valuation
1,022,360 x $650 = $664,534,000.00

Production cost
(1,277,950 x .8) x $250 = $255,590,000.00

Net revenue in ground
$664,534,000.00 - $255,590,000.00 = $408,944,000.00

EPS
$408,944,000.00 / 250,000,000 shares = $1.64
This assumes worst case share issuance.

Gold multiple forward EPS valuation
Low: $1.64 x 5.0 = $8.20 per share
High: $1.64 x 8.0 = $13.12 per share

Current price valuation multiple range
Low: $8.20 / $0.08 = 102.5 times current price
High: $13.12 / $0.08 = 164 times current price

Estimates:
Expect large speculators to arbitrage the EPS estimate based upon the assumption that the gold production area of PHGI will be purchased by larger gold interests as the current Gold Bull expands.

This is an updated post from earlier estimates reflecting recent gold prices and share structure.

rrm

[GnomeOfZurich]

EPS = Net Income/ Outstanding shares. Not shares issuance

Production is at least 80%