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3xBuBu

04/03/07 4:16 PM

#3942 RE: 3xBuBu #3904

Market Update 070403
http://biz.yahoo.com/mu/update.html

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3:30 pm : The indices continue to sport hefty gains as bullish breadth figures and strong industry leadership still bode well for equities. In addition to the Dow now trading in positive territory for the year, it's also only another 125 points away from revisiting its closing price the day before the global sell-off on February 27.

The blue-chip index, as well as the tech-heavy Nasdaq, are positioned to close higher for a fourth straight day. However, since there simply isn't enough underlying momentum to earnings growth anymore to overcome worsening fundamentals, it's hard to imagine today's rally being sustainable over the near-term, especially since this holiday-shortened week's gains have come on below average volume.DJ30 +125.26 NASDAQ +28.34 SP500 +12.75 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 995/2026/1.60 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 876/2388/1.18 bln

3:00 pm : The market is showing no signs of slowing heading into the final hour of trading. Oil prices recently closing down more than 2.0% near $64.50/bbl, with the Energy sector still managing to attract buyers, continues to provide a floor of support.

Materials (+1.3%) now leads the way among the 10 sectors in the green; but gains of more than 1.0% from the three most heavily-weighted S&P 500 sectors -- Financials, Technology, and Health Care -- tell an even more convincing story behind today's broad-based move to the upside. DJ30 +130.28 NASDAQ +30.45 SP500 +13.35 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 993/2013/1.48 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 838/2411/1.08 bln

2:30 pm : The indices have slipped from their intraday highs but not enough to make a significant change in the standings. With the Q1 earnings season slated to begin one week from today, and slower economic growth and tough year/year comparisons expected to snap 14 straight quarters of double-digit profit growth for the S&P 500, it's not surprising for sellers to step back in question current valuations.

Be that as it may, a rising tide has lifted nearly every boat as the worst of fears about a housing crisis spilling over into the rest of the economy have been temporarily silenced. DJ30 +126.54 NASDAQ +27.94 SP500 +12.52 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1020/1965/1.38 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 801/2440/1.00 bln

2:00 pm : A renewed wave of buying interest within the last 30 minutes lifts the indices to their best levels of the session. All three major averages are now up more than 1%, still being led by the tech-heavy Nasdaq.

On the Dow, which stands at five-week highs, 29 of its 30 components are trading higher. Home Depot (HD 37.66 +0.87) is leading the blue-chip charge with a 2.4% gain as signs of stability in housing lure bargain hunters to the beaten-down retailer. Despite recently posting a larger than expected 7.7% decline in U.S. auto sales last month, even General Motors (GM 31.40 +0.57) is attracting buyers to the tune of a 1.9% advance. GM also cut its Q2 production forecast by 1.3% to 1.16 mln vehicles. DJ30 +145.82 NASDAQ +32.41 SP500 +15.13 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 917/2045/1.26 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 786/2447/916 mln

1:30 pm : The indices are holding their own near session highs as buying remains widespread across most areas. Bonds, though, remain weak across the yield curve due primarily to the unexpected rise in pending home sales.

Aside from more evidence of stabilization in housing pressuring Treasuries, a broad-based rally in the stock market and easing geopolitical tensions are also diminishing the desire to own safe-haven investments like bonds. The 10-year note is down 5 ticks to yield 4.66%.DJ30 +123.59 NASDAQ +30.42 SP500 +13.57 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 950/2005/1.13 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 804/2402/832 mln

1:00 pm : More of the same for stocks as market internals maintain a decidedly bullish bias. As reflected in the A/D line, decliners on the NYSE hold a 3-to-1 edge over advancers while those on the Nasdaq hold a 2-to-1 margin. The ratio of down to up volume further dictates the sense of reserve on the part of sellers which remain few and far between.

Of the 147 S&P industry groups, only seven are trading lower, paced by a 0.8% decline in Independent Power Producers. Weakness in the latter isn't all that surprising, though, since its status as one of this year's best performers (+15.2%) invites some profit taking. DJ30 +116.78 NASDAQ +29.48 SP500 +12.50 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 951/1983/1.03 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 796/2387/756 mln

12:30 pm : No real change in the proceedings as the afternoon session gets underway. The Nasdaq is pacing the way higher among the majors with a 1.3% advance while the Dow's 0.9% gain erases a dismal Q1 performance and lifts it into positive territory for the year; 29 of its 30 components are in the green.

The S&P MidCap 400 extending its reach as this year's best performing index (+6.7%) with a 0.8% advance and the Russell 2000 surging 1.1% further underscore the broad-based nature of today's rally. DJ30 +118.23 NASDAQ +30.63 SP500 +12.96 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 907/2000/932 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 755/2400/674 mln

12:00 pm : The major averages are holding steady near session highs midday as investors embrace eased tensions in the Middle East and further evidence of stabilization in housing.

With the market increasingly sensitive to weak data, especially from the housing sector, an unexpected rise of 0.7% in February pending home sales has alleviated the worst of fears that a housing crisis will develop and spread to the broader economy.

The possibility of a diplomatic resolution between Iran and the U.K. to free 15 British sailors, which has sent oil prices plunging to three-week lows, has also offered investors some relief. After climbing to a six-month high above $68/bbl last week, the commodity slipped below $64/bbl earlier (-3.0%) amid calmer talks between Iran and the UK and a tamer than expected hurricane forecast. Crude for May delivery is now down 2.3% near $64.40/bbl. Perhaps more noteworthy is the fact that the Energy sector has recently turned positive even in the face of oil's downturn.

Of the nine other sectors trading higher, Consumer Discretionary is pacing the way as its 1.5% advance lifts the sector into positive territory for the year. Retailers are getting a big boost following a report that showed chain store sales for the week ending March 31 rose 4.9%, the fastest pace in two months. Homebuilders (+2.1%), this year's worst performing S&P industry group (-19.4%), is among today's biggest winners following the upbeat housing report.

Technology (+1.3%), which is now in positive territory for the year, is also providing some notable support. IT Consulting Services, one of yesterday's worst performing S&P industry groups, is attracting some bargain-hunting interest and ranks as today's best performer (+3.0%). Internet Software & Services ranks second as investors applaud Google's (GOOG 471.24 +12.71) plans to sell TV ads through a partnership with EchoStar Communications (DISH 44.40 +0.86) partnership. eBay (EBAY 34.05 +1.05) is up 3.0% after Bear Stearns raised Q1 profit and sales estimates.

The return of leadership from the struggling Financials sector (+1.0%), as further proof of stabilization in housing also alleviates worries of the subprime mortgage meltdown adding to the huge inventory of properties already on the market, is also acting as a strong source of market support. BTK +1.1% DJ30 +124.42 DJTA +1.5% DOT +1.6% NASDAQ +32.70 NQ100 +1.6% R2K +1.1% SOX +1.2% SP400 +0.8% SP500 +13.63 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 871/2011/820 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 734/2380/582 mln

11:30 am : The major averages are off their best levels but are holding onto the bulk of their solid gains as nine out of 10 sectors remain positive. Further underscoring the market's upbeat sentiment have been declines of 9% and 8% on the VIX (CBOE Volatility Index) and the VXN (CBOE Nasdaq Volatility Index), respectively.

Known as "investor fear gauges," both indexes spiking lower suggest investors are actively buying call options in anticipation that a short-term bottom has been put in place that will keep investors on the buying track.DJ30 +113.27 NASDAQ +28.97 SP500 +12.22 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 821/1996/706 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 704/2386/494 mln

11:00 am : Onward and upward remains a driving mantra this morning as investors rally around further deterioration in oil prices. After briefly slipping below $64/bbl (-3.0%), crude for May delivery is now down 2.6% near $64.20/bbl amid calmer talks between Iran and the UK, a tamer hurricane forecast and the commodity's inability to find technical support above the $64.90/bbl level.

Also noteworthy is the fact that the Energy sector is only down 0.4% in the face of oil's biggest decline in three weeks. Refiners (-1.2%), Coal & Consumable Fuel (-1.0%), Explorers (-0.5%), Drillers (-0.5%), Oil & Gas Storage (-0.4%), Oil & Gas Equipment (-0.4%) and Integrated Oil (-0.3%) rank as the day's seven worst performing S&P industry groups. DJ30 +124.99 NASDAQ +31.70 SP500 +12.61 XOI -0.6% NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 814/1926/578 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 710/2297/388 mln

10:30 am : Stocks have spiked higher since the last update as a market increasingly sensitive to weak data, especially from the housing sector, embraces an unexpected rise in pending home sales. At the top of the hour, the National Association of Realtors said pending home sales rose 0.7% in February to 109.3 following a revised 4.2% drop in January.

The report eases the worst of fears that a housing crisis will develop and spread to the broader economy. Further evidence of stabilization in housing also alleviates concerns that the subprime mortgage meltdown will add to the huge inventory of properties already on the market. DJ30 +90.32 NASDAQ +20.82 SP500 +9.07 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 768/1882/374 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 686/2287/250 mln

10:00 am : The indices are extending their reach to the upside as the bulk of industry leadership remains positive. Consumer Discretionary (+0.9%) is pacing the way, getting a big lift from retailers (RLX +1.1%) following a report that showed chain store sales for the week ending March 31 rose 4.9%, the fastest pace in two months. Investors are also applauding Comcast's (CMCSA 26.01 +0.27) plans to acquire Patriot Media & Communications.

Of the other seven sectors trading higher, Technology's 0.7% advance is providing an even more influential floor of support. Internet Software & Services ranks as today's best performing S&P industry group (+1.4%) as Google (GOOG 466.20 +7.67) enters TV ad market with EchoStar (DISH 44.01 +0.47) partnership. eBay (EBAY 33.32 +0.32) is up 1.0% after Bear Stearns raised Q1 profit and sales estimates. Financials, Health Care, Industrials and Consumer Staples are all up at least 0.5%.DJ30 +68.51 NASDAQ +16.60 SP500 +6.87 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 809/1639/154 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 779/1939/82 mln

09:40 am : Solid follow-through seen in stocks as investors get some reprieve from falling oil prices. After climbing above $68/bbl last week, the commodity slipping below $65/bbl today (-1.4%), amid easing fears of supply disruptions attributed to the diplomatic release of British captives, is helping to pave the way for bulls to get back in buying mode.

Early sentiment is also getting a boost from rallies in overseas markets while anticipation of new fund inflows during the first few days of the quarter is also contributing to the market's positive disposition. DJ30 +62.66 NASDAQ +12.37 SP500 +5.91 NASDAQ Vol 80 mln NYSE Vol 38 mln

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +5.3. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +7.0.

09:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +5.5. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +8.0. The stage remains set for the cash market to build onto yesterday's modest advance. Giving blue chips an early boost is United Technologies (UTX), which has been added to Credit Suisse Group's focus list, while fellow Dow component Caterpillar (CAT) will be focus after saying engine sales may get a boost from a $29 bln free-trade accord signed yesterday between the U.S. and South Korea. It is also worth noting that the first few trading days of the quarter are typically strong for stocks as new fund inflows hit the market.

08:30 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +4.8. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +7.2. Still shaping up for stocks to open on an upbeat note as futures indications continue to trade above fair value. Aside from falling oil prices acting as a positive catalyst, investors are also taking a bullish cue from rallies in overseas markets. The Nikkei Index and Hang Seng Index closed up 1.3% and 1.0%, respectively, while the major European bourses are up 0.7% on average.

08:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +4.6. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +6.5. Early indications are pointing to a slightly higher open for equities. Even though there is nothing in the way of earnings news to account for the positive disposition, and no economic data out until pending home sales hit the wires at 10:00 ET, investors are finding some reprieve from a 1.5% pullback in oil prices. Crude for May delivery is below $65/bbl on the growing belief that the standoff between Iran and the UK regarding the capture of 15 British sailors can be resolved diplomatically.

06:19 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +3.5. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +5.0.