It looks like he had 2280, #msg-1621616 but changed gears in Oct. Considering that prediction was from a year ago, it hasn't turned out to bad so far. If you go here, http://www.mondialepartners.com/includes/content/providers/BelkinIntro.pdf there's 37 pages worth of stuff in the pdf. Here's some more interesting stuff from an April 2000 article.
--------- On March 2, Mr. Belkin spoke at a lunch sponsored by Instinet at the Paris Stock Exchange. His message: Stock markets could halve. His advice: Unload technology shares and buy government bonds. He was two weeks early. "But I'll never get it to the day," says the 46-year-old geek who cut his teeth designing computer-driven strategies for Salomon Brothers' traders.
And it isn't just New Economy stocks that adorn his hit list. Mr. Belkin sees the S&P 500 falling 29%, Finland's HEX index 66% and markets in Germany, France, Italy, Sweden and Spain by 30% to 40%.
Behind these dire forecasts sits what insiders call a "threshold" model which, combined with analysis of the 200-week moving average of different financial assets, seeks to identify turning points in stock, bond, currency, commodity and emerging markets.
"When a market gets to an extreme deviation from its mean, it tends to revert to that mean," explains Mr. Belkin. "A speculative bubble is an extreme deviation from long-term trend, and a crash or correction is simply a reversion to a mean." Basically, Mr. Belkin tries "to supply a probability matrix that people can factor into their own asset-allocation strategies."
Want a history lesson? In 1929, the Dow peaked at 83% above its 200-week average; in 1987, it was 72%. In 1989, Japan's Nikkei peaked at 51%; in 1997 the Hang Seng crested at 57%. The average of the four pre-crash bubbles equals 66%.
Now get a load of this: The HEX is 190% over its 200-week average; the Swedish General 78% over; the French CAC-40 is 70% over; and the DAX is 61% above.
Oh, it's sectors you want? The Nasdaq 100, IIX and U.S. SOX semiconductor indexes are, respectively, 150%, 195% and 200% over. The STOXX Euro-zone technology sector is 169% over. Its U.K. equivalent is 147% over.
Mr. Belkin blames the U.S., Japanese and euro-zone central banks -- which he calls "the three blind mice" -- for these stretched valuations. All three pumped out billions to deal with potential Y2K glitches. "But there was no Y2K problem; so they totally screwed up and printed a bunch of money for no good reason," says Mr. Belkin. "That money spilled over into financial markets and ignited a huge financial boom."
What follows? A bash, of course. In December 1999, Mr. Belkin sent clients a mock New Year's Eve invitation: "You are cordially invited to the Greenspan Millennium Meltup Y2K Party!" Location? U.S.S. Bubblemania, Broad and Wall Streets.
Trust a guy who once played guitar in Los Angeles bars for a living and whose college graduation speaker was Ivan Boesky? "The weekly Belkin Report provides a valuable, contrarian view of the global equity, debt and currency markets, and very useful macro charts of global markets," says Steven Schoenfeld, head of international equity strategies at Barclays Global Investors. He thinks the views can be extreme and sometimes quite wrong. "But he has had enough good calls to make his work valuable. When you're inundated with sell-side research, it is vital to get diverse views of the markets as a counterbalance."
Yes, there have been times when Mr. Belkin has missed the side of the proverbial barn with a howitzer. His worst call: getting the October 1987 crash wrong. He waxed bearish when the market peaked in August but expected it to rally to new highs after a 10% decline. "Then it crashed in my face," he says. "But I learned something: that I had to develop a model that incorporated risk-controls, which is this model."
Believe it or not, the bear does recommend buying a few things, such as Italian, Spanish, French, German and U.S. government bonds. And relative to others, he likes the Irish, Swiss and U.K. stock markets. In Europe, he favors the energy, insurance, health-care, utilities and food and beverage sectors. In the U.S., it's oil, insurance and retail food and discount stores.
Right now, it seems, the black-box model has a safety latch.
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