Replies to post #172151 on Zeev's Turnips Patch-No Politics (ZEEV)

[Joe Stocks]

>>Excessive liquidity not withstanding, I'm now of the opinion that other than the PM's and other commodities the markets have prolly seen their highs for the year.<<

Dan, I would normally agree with you but this year we have been to this point several times only to see the bull regain their footing. Still saying that absent a domestic terrorist strike Greenie will not let us down for Christmas. In my opinion, the world economy depends on consumer spending to stay strong until business spending shows some solid growth. The Dow means too much to J6P for the Fed to allow the market to drop here.

That said,my bear suit is on. I have several core positions short that I have mentioned here, long a few others (RRI, etc.), and of course, long some gold, which I must thank you for in keeping me updated.

[Zeev Hed]

Dan, quite possible, but if we do not print above 2000 late next month (and I still do not have 2000 on the Naz till January), then indeed the 1992 we saw on 11/7, was the high for the year. That does not mean this cyclical bull is dead, I thing it has 2000 for early next year and maybe much more. As for the Euro and Yen (and Gold), we could still back and fill (and counter move next week). The fact that gold did not take out $400 in a strom, could indicate that too many "interested parties" are not ready for gold going above $400, or surely not in a break out fashion. The next three trading days in general might be "telling", I have the bottom lurking nearby, if that assessment is correct, gold will correct a little, maybe as much as to $375.... They are going to make us sweat for $400. Used the run to reduce gold from a high of 10% to just 2% today.

[Public Heel]

I'm afraid that the miners are building in much too much positive sentiment. For example, yesterday, the POG went up about as much as it dropped the day before, but the prices of the miners went up much more yesterday than they dropped on Monday. When there is a stall, or a reversal, in the POG, I think that sentiment is going to be reversed, with nasty effects on the miners' prices.