>> I think the molecule from Genentech should be a little bit better than the one from Eyetch, but it will not be spectacular. <<
After your accurate call on Macugen, I’m inclined to believe you!
>> The only chance is that [Lucentis] shows some improvment when compared to Visudyne, the reference treatment for FDA. <<
Visudyne is the currently the standard of care only in the predominantly-classic subtype of wet AMD; to obtain approval in the other two subtypes (minimally-classic and occult), Lucentis won’t have to show a benefit vis-à-vis Visudyne but merely a benefit versus placebo.
>> The phase III is also ongoing for Genentech, but I don't think we will see preliminary results before ARVO 2004 in May, except if they try to accelerate the process in view of poor Eyetech's results.<<
Lucentis has two phase-3 trials: one in predominantly-classic (vs. Visudyne) and one in minimally-classic/occult (vs. placebo). The trials started enrolling patients in 6/03 and 3/03, respectively, and they have run into some delays in recruitment, according to Genentech:
Itis highly unlikely that mature data from either of these trials will be ready for release by ARVO in May, but we might see early interim data from the minimally-classic/occult trial.
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