March 9 (Bloomberg) -- The nation's banks are just beginning to feel the pain of defaults on risky mortgages they made at low introductory rates when housing prices were soaring, U.S. Federal Reserve Governor Susan Bies said.
Bies, who has been the Fed's top banking policy official in her tenure at the U.S. central bank, said today banks are likely to see more missed payments and foreclosures as consumers with weak credit histories begin to face higher monthly mortgage payments.
``What's happening is the front end of this wave of teaser- rate loans that are coming into full pricing,'' Bies said at a risk-management forum in Charlotte, North Carolina. ``So what we're seeing in this narrow segment is the beginning of the wave. This is not the end, this is the beginning.''
Bies's comments reflect growing attention among bank regulators to the turmoil in the so-called subprime mortgage market and its impact on consumers and U.S. lenders. Many subprime borrowers face large prepayment penalties they can't afford, and they can't refinance or sell their homes, she said.
Bies, 59, said regulators are concerned about ``payment shock'' in mortgage loans made to borrowers with weak credit histories whose payments surge after a low introductory period. These subprime adjustable-rate mortgages represent 7 percent of mortgages made in the last few years, Bies said.
U.S. bank regulators have been watching rising numbers of cases of missed payments and defaults in the subprime market since last spring, Bies said.
Tougher Guidelines
The Fed and four other bank regulators released proposed guidelines last week instructing banks to strengthen their underwriting standards and offer clear disclosures on loan terms to subprime borrowers.
The central bank also said last week that the delinquency rate on banks' residential real-estate loans reached a four-year high last quarter.
Bies said the problems in the mortgage market are well- contained.
``We're seeing this in a very narrow segment,'' Bies said. ``We're watching for contagion, we haven't seen it.''
Outside of the housing and auto industries, ``the economy is strong,'' Bies said.
Bankruptcies, Sales
More than two dozen mortgage companies have gone bankrupt, closed operations or sought buyers since the start of 2006, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
Irvine, California-based New Century Financial Corp., the second-largest U.S. home lender to subprime borrowers, stopped making new loans. Analysts speculate the company may soon file for bankruptcy protection.
Fremont General Corp., a Santa Monica, California-based mortgage lender, said on March 2 that it would sell its subprime mortgage lending operations three days after the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. notified the company of objections to its subprime lending practices.
``In the housing markets and bubbles that occurred in some areas, to afford housing, people pushed their limit to afford a house,'' Bies said. ``And in doing so, lenders tried to create products to meet those demands.''
Bies spoke on a panel with two chief risk officers from Charlotte-based Bank of America Corp. and Wachovia Corp. She plans to resign from the Fed as of March 30.
Fed Meeting
Bies and other Fed governors yesterday attended a meeting of the Fed's Consumer Advisory Council in Washington where they were warned that rising mortgage foreclosures are likely to get worse.
The Fed officials heard stories about Cleveland, Philadelphia, Denver and New York, where neighborhoods are falling apart as homeowners struggle to pay loans or abandon their homes in foreclosure. Consumer advocates said loose underwriting standards in the subprime market caused the growing foreclosure rates.
Higher interest rates should have compensated investors for risk if markets were functioning correctly, said Massachusetts Institute of Technology professor Robert Solow, winner of the 1987 Nobel Prize in economics. Standards may have fallen below appropriate levels in the ``euphoria'' of borrowing and lending, Solow said in an interview with Bloomberg Radio today.
Market Update 070312 4:10 pm : The market had its share of trading catalysts today and it chose to ignore them for most of the session.
On the plus side, oil prices dropped below $60 per barrel and there was another round of M&A activity that was highlighted by Schering-Plough's (SGP 23.95, +0.10) $14.4 billion cash offer for Akzo Nobel's drug unit Organon. On the negative side, Countrywide Financial (CFC 35.14, -0.96) said it expects to experience short-term earnings volatility due to the tightening of its underwriting guidelines in response to the troubles in the subprime mortgage market.
The latter declaration seemed to keep the market in handcuffs in the early-going as it fueled concerns about potential spillover effects of the subprime issue into the broader economy and weighed noticeably on the financial stocks.
The broader market, however, didn't buckle in the face of initial selling efforts as relative strength in the technology sector (+0.83%) helped neutralize the weak showing in the financial sector (-0.03%).
That measure of resilience held buyers' attention, as it was viewed as a potential signal that the concerns about the subprime mortgage issue have already been discounted in the market.
That point remains debatable, but recognizing the subprime factor didn't rattle the market in appreciable fashion, buyers emerged in the afternoon session and helped push the S&P 500 to the brink of the high point it saw on Friday following the February jobs report. It was there that the afternoon rally try ran out of gas as technical resistance pushed the market back in the late stages of trading.
The major indices, however, still closed the session with modest gains. Eight out of ten economic sectors ended the day higher, but the lack of participation from the financial sector was the key, limiting factor that kept overall gains in check.
Looking ahead, Tuesday will have its share of trading catalysts. Tonight's mid-quarter update from Texas Instruments (TXN 32.59, +0.13), the earnings report from Goldman Sachs (GS 202.60, +0.90) before the open, and the February Retail Sales report will be the focal points.DJ30 +42.30 NASDAQ +14.74 SP500 +3.75 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1299/1724/1.50 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1244/2055/1.30 bln
3:30 pm : The afternoon charge has hit a speed bump which, according to technical analysts, came into play at last Friday's peak level of 1409.98 for the S&P 500.
The indices, however, have maintained a posture in positive territory as the recovery of the financial sector (unch) from larger losses is feeding into bottom-fishing interest. The brokers, which will be in the spotlight tomorrow following the earnings report from Goldman Sachs (GS 202.27, +0.57), have been among the beneficiaries of the afternoon buying activity.
The Treasury market has moved off its best levels of the day in conjunction with the stock market's uptick, yet it continues to hold the bulk of earlier gains. The 10-year note is up 9 ticks with its yield at 4.55%.DJ30 +50.95 NASDAQ +14.48 SP500 +4.59 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1248/1764/1.28 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1110/2134/1.11 bln
3:00 pm : A market that had its guard up for most of the day has let it down somewhat so to speak, as the indices have pushed to new intraday highs in the afternoon session. The move has been fairly broad-based which explains why we have seen a simultaneous updraft in all three indices.
Still, it is the tech sector (+0.9%) that is carrying the load from a leadership standpoint, and consequently, the Nasdaq is outlegging its major counterparts on a percentage basis.
On a related note, there is a lot more green on stock monitors than before as 8 out of 10 economic sectors are sporting a gain. The two holdouts - financial (-0.03%) and energy (-0.05%) - are showing only negligible losses now.
2:30 pm : The indices have broken out to new session highs in the past half hour without any real fundamental catalyst.
Buying interest picked up when the indices pushed above prior highs for the day, so the move is likely to be attributed to technical activity. In any event, the major indices are all on positive ground now, led by the technology (+0.8%) and telecom services (+0.9%) sectors.
The financial sector (-0.2%), meanwhile, is well off its worst levels of the day - a move that has helped drive the recent uptick in the broader market.DJ30 +45.99 NASDAQ +12.23 SP500 +3.67 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1465/1529/1.02 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1433/1792/892 mln
1:55 pm : There just hasn't been much conviction behind today's action as evidenced by the flat standing of the S&P 500.
The market has not been without catalysts, but with a slate of important items due out later this week, investors have taken a guarded approach thus far as they wait to see if a bottom has in fact been put in place following the jarring sell-off on February 27 or whether further downside is in the offing.
One of the supportive factors today that has been marginalized for the most part has been the drop in oil prices. Crude futures for April delivery are down $0.85 at $59.20 per barrel as traders are pricing in (or out depending on your vantage point) the arrival of warmer weather and the likelihood OPEC leaves its production output quotas unchanged at Thursday's meeting.DJ30 +22.43 NASDAQ +6.16 SP500 +0.77 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1489/1471/938 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1477/1719/817 mln
1:30 pm : It's more of the same for Wall Street, which is to say the indices are little changed since the update at the top of the hour.
The technology sector (+0.61%) has been an influential source of support that has helped mitigate the negative effects of the weakness in the financial sector (-0.52%).
Semiconductor stocks are attracting some buying interest ahead of the Texas Instruments (TXN 32.79, +0.33) mid-quarter update tonight, as are some big-cap technology issues such as Apple (AAPL 89.65, +1.68), Oracle (ORCL 17.00, +0.37), Intel (INTC 19.39, +0.29), Yahoo! (YHOO 30.03, +0.91) and Microsoft (MSFT 27.40, +0.12)DJ30 +15.95 NASDAQ +5.69 NQ100 +0.3% SP500 +0.37 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1458/1482/864 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1424/1742/746 mln
1:00 pm : For followers of the market, today's session has been played out in a painfully tight trading range. Five points is all that separates the S&P 500 from the low end of today's range to the top end.
The lack of volatility reflects a return to normalcy of sorts that Briefing.com laid out in this week's Big Picture column.
Separately, some headlines have hit the wires from Fed Governor Kroszner's speech on inflation dynamics. In typical fashion, he noted the Fed would need to respond if inflation expectations "drift." His remarks haven't had any discernible trading impact on either the stock or bond market.DJ30 +11.86 NASDAQ +6.23 SP500 -0.21 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1429/1485/777 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1424/1723/670 mln
12:30 pm : The current standing of the indices reflects a relatively mixed market, but there is more behind the numbers than meets the eye.
As it so happens, 6 out of 10 economic sectors are trading higher at this juncture which is the opposite of how they stood earlier in the session. The market's inability to register stronger gains, though, is being limited primarily by weakness in the financial sector (-0.4%) which carries the biggest weight in the S&P 500.
From an industry standpoint, homebuilders (-3.9%) are a notable pocket of weakness as the subprime mortgage issue is expected by investors to be a drag on earnings prospects.DJ30 +6.46 NASDAQ +5.12 SP500 -0.11 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1401/1493/688 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1469/1628/581 mln
11:55 am : Everything was set for an upbeat start to the week. Japan revised its Q4 GDP growth higher, oil prices slipped below $60 per barrel, and there was a batch of M&A activity highlighted by Schering-Plough's (SGP 23.62, -0.23) $14.4 billion cash offer for Akzo Nobel's drug unit Organon.
However, the tide of bullish sentiment soon turned in the wake of a revelation from Countrywide Financial (CFC 34.98, -1.12) that it expects to encounter short-term earnings volatility as it tightens its underwriting guidelines in response to the deteriorating conditions in the subprime mortgage market.
Countrywide's news, combined with an announcement from mortgage REIT New Century Financial (NEW 3.21, halted) that its lenders have halted their financing, was enough to derail the bullish bias and left the market poised for a lower open.
Strikingly, though, the market managed to hold its ground at the start of trading in a sign that perhaps it is coming around to the conclusion that problems in the subprime mortgage market aren't going to be a systemic issue.
That consideration hasn't helped the financial sector (-0.6%), which is the day's worst-performing area and a major drag on the broader market ahead of Goldman Sachs' (GS 199.49, -2.21) earnings report before the open tomorrow.
Despite the financial sector's underperformance, sellers haven't ben able to establish much momentum as a wait-and-see attitude seems to have permeated the market with a host of important, and potentially market-moving, items coming up this week.
The Goldman Sachs earnings report is among them, as is the mid-quarter update from Texas Instruments (TXN 32.64, +0.18) after the close tonight. The February Retail Sales report tomorrow and the PPI, CPI and Industrial Production reports at the end of the week, along with OPEC's meeting on Thursday, are also not to be forgotten.
The one standout in today's session happens to be the Treasury market, which is getting a boost from some safe-haven buying interest ahead of those items and in response to the subprime mortgage market concerns. DJ30 -5.28 NASDAQ +1.49 SP500 -1.81 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1463/1370/591 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1638/1423/486 mln
11:30 am : The indices remain confined to narrow trading ranges as both buyers and sellers have been unable to gain any momentum today.
Although the market is little changed, there is a measurable feeling of angst about it that is best seen in the Treasury market's positive disposition today. The 10-year note is up 13 ticks, bringing its yield down to 4.54%.
There hasn't been any data to account for the bond market's gains, but ongoing reports about the problems in the subprime mortgage market are feeding some safe-haevn buying interest while stocks vacillate.DJ30 -14.90 NASDAQ -0.85 SP500 -3.47 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1412/1400/492 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1527/1496/392 mln
11:00 am : The indices are little changed for the day, as things seems to have settled down after the pre-market sentiment shift that was linked to concerns about the subprime mortgage market.
The lack of conviction on the part of buyers and sellers at this juncture stands to reason, frankly, when taking into account that there are a number of potentially market-moving items on the docket this week.
For instance, there is a mid-quarter update from Texas Instruments (TXN 32.65, +0.19) after the close today and Goldman Sachs (GS 199.37, -2.33) will report its quarterly results before the open tomorrow. The economic calendar, meanwhile, features the February Retail Sales report tomorrow and the PPI, CPI and Industrial production reports later in the week.DJ30 -4.64 NASDAQ +1.83 SP500 -2.44 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1367/1398/443 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1521/1432/367 mln
10:35 am : It isn't typically noteworthy to report that the market is essentially flat, but today, it is. Stocks were slated for a negative start with concerns about the subprime mortgage market undercutting a bullish bias in the futures market seen earlier this morning.
Their resilience indicates that the market is distancing itself from the knee-jerk analysis that ruled shortly after the global stock market sell-off on February 27. This is particularly important as it relates to the subprime issue.
While there will be some fallout due to rising delinquency rates, Briefing.com isn't expecting any meaningful impact on the overall economy. Arguably, the market is coming around to the same conclusion which helps explain the market's resilience and the understanding that the financial sector (-0.3%) has managed to pare earlier losses.DJ30 +4.81 NASDAQ +4.07 SP500 -1.50 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1331/1337/271 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1696/1200/210 mln
10:00 am : The stock market is struggling to gain any upside momentum in the early-going as it is suffering from a lack of concerted sector leadership. That is, a concerted lack of upside leadership.
At this time, the technology sector (+0.2%) is the biggest gainer among the 10 economic sectors; meanwhile, the majority of sectors are trading in negative territory. Thus far, the losses have been contained, but with financial (-0.5%) and energy (-0.8%) the two biggest laggards, the broader market is languishing in red figures. The former sector is trading in response to subprime mortgage market concerns while the latter is following oil prices lower.
DJ30 -21.55 NASDAQ -0.93 SP500 -3.93 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 986/1457/112 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1296/1330/64 mln
09:45 am : Contrary to the expectations rooted in the behavior of the futures market, stocks managed to hold their ground reasonably well at the start of trading.
Early buying interest in the semiconductor stocks and transportation shares has been a stabilizing influence for the time being in the face of concerns about the subprime mortgage market that were fueled by Countrywide's (CFC 35.01, -1.09) admission this morning that it expects to encounter some short-volatility in earnings as a result of the changes taking place in the subprime marketplace.DJ30 +1.37 NASDAQ +6.10 SP500 -0.47
09:19 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -3.6. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -4.5.
08:37 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -3.6. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -7.2. The bullish sentiment seen earlier has wavered, and consequently, the market is now set to start the session on a negative note. Ongoing concerns about the growing problems in the subprime mortgage market have served as a turning point after Countrywide (CFC) said in an update that it expects some short-term earnings volatility as a result of the changes in the subprime mortgage marketplace. In related news, New Century Financial (NEW) disclosed it has received notice from its lenders that they are discontinuing their financing under the company's short-term repurchase agreements and aggregation credit facilities.
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