Replies to post #3139 on UniCycive Therapeutics Inc (UNCY)

[Whalatane]

Re

I know nobody wants to hear this

. I always want to hear opposing views so dont include me with the nobodies :--)

So the $22 price target . I think this is considered a 1 yr price target ...not an approval price target .

So approval late June bumps us to $12-$14 IMHO ..80% probability
From that pt you have another $2 probably on filing for TDAPA on time ...July qt cut off ...or a $3 penalty if thats missed

Then it's the deal they make with Fresenius and DaVita to get OLC on the shelves of dialysis clinics .... a deal thats profitable for Fresenius and Da Vita to encourage patient use .
This is key to hitting $22 or higher within a yr .
Ceo has been touting his investment banking creds ...nows the time to show what he's got . .

Assuming Fresenius and Da Vita buys in and Medicare covers 100% ...patient use should ramp. Patients hate their current pho pills .
Going into 2027
Approval in the EU is in progress
If TDAPA is still 2 yrs ...then OLC will be the only pho binder covered 100% by Medicare .
If TDAPA has been extended to 3 yrs ...UNCY has more competition in 2027 but still gets the last 2 yrs as the only pho med covered 100% by Medicare.

So $22 is a reasonable 1 yr target if ALL the above falls into place..

Reason for not spiking yet .
Well when will we know if the FDA inspection in India has been completed . Not if it passed ...just that the inspection took place on schedule and that there were no delays related to fuel shortages.
When will we know if they are actually hiring sales reps ...or are doing a deal with CSL Vifor for OLC distribution ...or negotiating directly with Fresenius and Da Vita

Pharmaceutical Impact: As of March 2026, some pharmaceutical manufacturing hubs in Gujarat, Telangana, and Andhra Pradesh faced risks of partial shutdowns due to a propane crunch, potentially affecting the production of essential medicines.

. Dont know if Shilpa was affected
JMO
Kiwi

PS

Current Fuel & Energy ChallengesLPG and Gas Shortages: Due to ongoing conflicts in West Asia, India has faced severe disruptions in LPG supplies , forcing drug manufacturers to prioritize domestic cooking gas over industrial production.

Rising Input Costs: Fuel scarcity has led to a reported 35% increase in input costs for industrial operations in India. This "fuel crunch" has triggered panic buying and temporary stock exhaustion at several fuel stations, particularly in Telangana, where one of Shilpa’s major facilities is located.

Grid and Power Drags:
Recent industrial data shows a slowdown in India's manufacturing output due to "power drags" and a rigid energy grid that struggles to integrate renewable sources effectively.