"@hap0206 Trump to his favorite bunkers --- Middle East crisis live: Trump leaves Situation Room to golf as ships report attacks and Iran closes strait of Hormuz"
Seizing Iran's enriched uranium is nearly impossible. Many soldiers could die trying.
Joe Cirincione Mar 23, 2026
When I was a kid, I saw The Guns of Navarone in our local theater. A band of intrepid Army commandos infiltrate an impregnable Nazi base to blow up long-range artillery threatening Allied forces when air raids fail to destroy them. It may be the fantasy that Donald Trump had in mind when he imagines sending the 82nd Airborne or Marine Expeditionary Units to the Iranian city of Isfahan to take out the 440kg of highly-enriched uranium (HEU) Iran is believed to store there.
Even if the troops were led by the likes of Gregory Peck, David Niven and Anthony Quinn (who star in the film) the mission is nearly impossible. On Saturday, I discussed why on MS Now with host Erielle Rashef. Please click on the video below to see why.
---------- [Insert: Repeat reminder, the nuke angle was well contained (if ever even necessary considering the long-time Iran fatwa against nuclear weapons:
Firstly, fact of 15 years ago
Iraq, Iran and the Nuclear Phantasm: We’ve Seen this Picture Iraq, Iran and the Nuclear Phantasm: We’ve Seen this Picture Posted on 11/09/2011 by Juan Nuclear issues are so complicated that the public is easily misled and frightened by nuclear demagoguery. That is why the new International Atomic Energy Agency report on Iran’s nuclear program .. http://thinkprogress.org/security/2011/11/08/364519/white-house-iaea-report-iran/ .. will be hyped endlessly. P -Iran is a theocracy in which the Supreme Leader has said that nuclear weapons are forbidden in Islamic law.In the medieval Muslim law of war, killing innocent non-combatants is forbidden. The same people who jump up and down about Iran being “medieval” in this regard suddenly dismiss Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s injunctions against nuclear warheads as irrelevant when the latter subject comes up. But if he gave such a fatwa and at the same time undermined it, he would risk a fatal blow to his authority and legitimacy. P - The way you tell if a country like Iran is actively working on a nuclear bomb is that it diverts uranium to weapons purposes. Iran has not done that, as the IAEA repeatedly affirms. Almost certainly, if Iran were seriously working on a bomb, it would kick international inspectors out altogether. Yousaf Butt explains the red lines. .. http://atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/MH16Ak03.html .. P - It is likely that Iran wants “nuclear latency,” or the “Japan option.” November, 2011 - https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=68849631
Secondly, to today:
Updated: Trump thinks he can switch off the Iran War | If You're Listening | ABC NEWS In-depth [...] The 2011/2012 Statements * Context: Trump posted multiple tweets and videos (particularly around 2011-2013) arguing that Obama was a weak and ineffective negotiator who would use a foreign war to boost his reelection chances. * The Quote: "Our president will start a war with Iran because he has absolutely no ability to negotiate. He's weak and he's ineffective. So the only way he figures that he's going to get reelected — and as sure as you're sitting there — is to start a war with Iran," Trump said in a 2011 video. * His Position Then: Trump stated at the time that starting such a war would be an "outrage" and a sign of desperation. [...] Quite why these indirect talks failed is not just a matter of historical curiosity, or a retrospective exercise in allocating blame for the start of such a disastrous war; it is relevant to whether a nuclear deal only is feasible or whether a broader agreement will be necessary now. P - This matters because after the war, if Iran’s government survives, calls inside the country to obtain a nuclear weapon will inevitably grow. Last week’s purported statement from the new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, made no reference to whether the fatwa banning the use of nuclear weapons set out by his late father remained in place. Protesters outside the foreign ministry in Tehran have demanded no return to talks with America. [...] Questioning how he was voted back into the White House, he continued: "Megalomania is common among the powerful, but in Trump's case it combines with pre-existing traits, such as a lack of conscient, remorse, truthfulness or empathy which may go along with impulsiveness and over-confidence. P - "In many societies, his glaring faults would disbar him from holding any post of authority, but Americans have twice voted to send him to the White House." https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=177513992] ----------
I can summarize the problem in a few bullets.
* Trump wants to get the material because if Iran retains it, and if it has a few hundred working centrifuges, it could further enrich the uranium from 60 percent to 90 percent, or weapons-grade, in a few weeks. It would be enough for the cores of about ten bombs.
* It would take many more months (perhaps 6 to 12) to turn that material into a deliverable bomb, but making the material is the hardest part.
* Every step after that is easier for Iran to take and harder for us to stop.
* Trump threw away diplomatic solutions to this problem.
* First, by tearing up in 2018 the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action negotiated with Iran by the US, Russia, China, the EU, Germany and the United Kingdom in 2014. If that plan had be in effect today, Iran would not have any HEU. The deal prohibited making such material and strictly limited the number and quality of centrifuges allowed. Those prohibitions did not expire until 2030.
* Second, by rejecting Iran’s offer 4 weeks ago at the talks mediated by Oman. Iran offered to give up the HEU and suspend all enrichment for 3 to 5 years. Britain’s national security advisor, attending the talks, was “surprised” at how good Iran’s offer was. Trump rejected it.
* The military mission to get the uranium is extremely high risks.
------ Transportation. Isfahan is 500 miles from the coast, perhaps 800 miles from a staging area. The troops cannot drive there, but ferrying them by slow-flying helicopters and cargo planes will be extremely hazardous.
------ Excavation. The HEU is deep underground. Worse, the tunnels to get there are covered by dirt and, some say, concrete. The troops would need heavy equipment like bulldozers and diggers to clear a path. All while under fire from Iran’s one million man army and one million man Basij militias.
------ Identification. The HEU is storied in canisters resembling scuba tanks. Assuming that Iran hasn’t brought down hundreds of dummy canisters, the commandos would have to be extremely careful in handling the 60 or 100 HEU canisters. Piercing them would release highly volatile, toxic gas. Getting the canisters too close together could trigger a chain reaction and resulting explosion.
------ Transportation Back. The best option would be for the troops to blow them up in place. That would be difficult but doable. The soldiers would sill have all the problems of getting there in the first place and now the even more difficult task of getting out. After days or even weeks at the site (depending on whether the mission is extraction or destruction) and Iranian forces deployed against them, that won’t be easy.
Trump may have brought us to the worst of all possible worlds: making a negotiated solution impossible with his ever escalating demands, but have over-estimated the feasibility of a military solution. So, too, with the failure to prevent the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the economic catastrophe it causes.
U.S. forces have had weeks of tactical success but we may be facing strategic defeat. Iran is left holding all the nuclear cards with the strategic balance shifting decisively in its favor.
No question of "may have", Trump has brought us to the worst world any rational person since Obama's time could have imagined. See also:
AI Overview
As of mid-April 2026, analysts and reports suggest Iran has strengthened its strategic leverage significantly despite enduring heavy losses from US-led airstrikes. While the US retains a tactical and conventional military advantage, Iran has utilized its "forward defence" strategy and proxy networks to create a potentially stronger position than before the conflict began.
Key developments in April 2026 highlighting this shift include:
* Control of the Strait of Hormuz: Iran has effectively closed or strictly controlled the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial global oil choke point, using it as a primary strategic lever.
* Failed Strategic Goal: The initial US campaign aimed to halt Iran's missile production and reduce its regional influence. Instead, Iran has maintained significant operational capability, utilizing asymmetric tactics and, in some cases, launching missiles from central Iran to avoid damage to Western-deployed systems.
* "Tollbooth Diplomacy": Iran has continued to hold leverage by controlling maritime passage, enabling it to negotiate selective access with nations not participating in the US-led operations.
* Asymmetric Advantage: Iran’s investment in drones and missiles has allowed it to inflict economic damage and maintain "winning hand" status in terms of strategic leverage, even though its conventional infrastructure has been significantly damaged.
* Exhaustion of US Assets: The conflict has strained US resources, with reports indicating a significant depletion of specific stealth cruise missile stockpiles (such as the JASSM-ER) within the first few weeks of operations.
As of April 19, 2026, a 2-week ceasefire mediated by Pakistan was in place (starting April 8) to facilitate talks, although the Strait of Hormuz remained largely closed, and the situation remains highly volatile.
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