Donald Trump wants a 'silver bullet' in Iran but he's dealing with a 'very complex situation'
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US President Donald Trump is deploying thousands of marines and extra battleships to the Middle East.
At the same time, he claims to be close to a deal with Iran to end the war.
The USS Tripoli is due to arrive in the region this weekend, with about 2,200 marines on board — and another 2,500 marines, aboard the USS Boxer, are on the way from California.
According to some analysts, they could be in the Middle East within three weeks.
The US military is also set to deploy a combat brigade of about 1,000 soldiers from the army's 82nd Airborne Division.
The number of soldiers to be deployed is not yet known, but these troops train for parachuting into hostile territory and are capable of deploying anywhere in the world within 18 hours.
It means within a few weeks, there could be as many as 8,000 US soldiers and marines in the region.
But Mr Trump has also said that US envoy Steve Witkoff and his son-in-law Jared Kushner held talks last Sunday with an Iranian leader and claimed that discussions with Iran were yielding great progress.
So what does this all mean? Is Mr Trump set to wind down his war with Iran, or is he thinking of escalating?
Trump weighs up Iran 'stalemate'
Danny Citrinowicz, a senior researcher on Iran from the Institute of National Studies, thinks Mr Trump wants to "break the stalemate" in Iran.
"He thinks there's a silver bullet solution," Mr Citrinowicz told the ABC.
"I don't think there is, I think we're in a very complex situation right now."
He said Iran was "not Venezuela" and Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, the speaker of Iran's parliament, was "no Delcy Rodríguez".
He was referencing Venezuela's interim leader, who has distanced herself from her predecessor's rule and worked closely with Washington since assuming power.
"There's no negotiation, they're just back and forth exchanging of messages," Mr Citrinowicz said.
"But at the end of the day for Trump to reach a deal, he would have to give something substantial to the Iranians."
Three options for the US in Iran
The US already has around 50,000 troops deployed across the Middle East.
But most of them are not infantry units designed to invade a country.
Smoke rises from Kuwait international airport after a drone strike. (AP Photo)
One possible reason for deploying more combat troops to the region is that the US president wants to have some options up his sleeve, so essentially, troops nearby on stand-by.
Another is that he is planning to take Kharg Island — Iran's primary oil export hub in the Persian Gulf — to pressure Tehran into opening the Strait of Hormuz.
But that option is risky given the island is only 24 kilometres from Iran's coast.
The third option is US boots on the ground along Iran's southern mainland.
Mr Citrinowicz spent 25 years in various command positions within Israel's intelligence unit of the military and said the US and Israel had miscalculated from the get-go.
"I think they got it all wrong. Iran won't capitulate, even if you take Hormuz or you take Kharg [Island]," Mr Citrinowicz said.
He explained that Iran's regime was "radicalised in so many ways".
"That's not going to help. Yes, it will put pressure on the regime, I'm not saying it's not, but it's not going to be the endgame, it's not going to collapse the regime," Mr Citrinowicz said.
"The Iranians … they declared that, they're expecting those soldiers. There is no surprise element.
"I don't think it [will] shorten the war; I think it will prolong it."
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The likelihood of movement on Kharg Island
The movement of US troops around the world since the war broke out has been studied closely by many, including Hamidreza Azizi, a visiting fellow at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs.
After analysing the US troops' movements, he does not believe taking Kharg Island would be worth the risk for America.
"A ground operation targeting Kharg would be both highly complex and of limited strategic value, especially given the island's proximity to the Iranian mainland and the fact that it can be targeted through air power without the need for ground forces," Dr Azizi said.
Instead, he thinks that if a ground invasion is being prepared, it would most likely be directed at Iran's southern mainland, specifically targeting military bases along the Persian Gulf coast.
"The logic here is that the current air campaign has already focused heavily on degrading Iran's maritime and coastal capabilities, particularly those linked to operations in the Strait of Hormuz," Dr Azizi said.
"However, from this perspective, air strikes alone may not be sufficient to fully neutralise these capabilities".
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