The midterms are here, and 2026 will provide major tests for both parties. President Donald Trump will face an election cycle that could leave him as a lame duck, and Democrats are still reckoning with the future of the party post-2024.
So with just over 300 days until Election Day, here are five big questions that will be key to determining who wins in November.
1) How is the economy?
In 2025, affordability and the cost of living were through lines in nearly every election. Now, as Obamacare subsidies have expired, Democrats are already working to make health care central to their economic arguments.
Mid-decade gerrymandering took the nation by storm last year. And as many legislatures head back into session this month, there’s likely more on the horizon.
So far, it’s been mostly a wash. Republicans may have net a seat or two, but not enough to completely insulate the party from midterm vulnerabilities. But with Florida and other red states taking up the issue this year, we will be keeping close eyes on which party is ahead before voters hit the polls.
3) Will Elon Musk spend his billions?
On New Year’s Day, billionaire Elon Musk posted repeatedly on X about his desire for Republicans to keep control of the House. But whether he spends his billions to boost the party ahead of November is a different question.
In 2025, Musk poured millions into the Wisconsin Supreme Court race,only for Democrats to win. In May, he said he would stop donating politically, but recent reporting suggests he plans to spend this year. How much he spends — and whether he funds his own political operation, or funnels it to more established GOP groups — has the potential to upend the cash race this year.
4) Does a Democratic leader emerge?
Even as Democrats overperformed up and down the ballot in 2025, the party still lacks a clear leader. A recent question in The POLITICO Poll asked voters who leads the party — and more than 30 percent of responses were “I don’t know” or “nobody.”
That makes 2026 a crucial year for a leader to emerge, both for candidates running for office this year and those positioning themselves for 2028. Who ends up on the stump will give a glimpse into where the party is headed for the next presidential election.
5) Will Trump hit the trail?
More than any figure in the GOP, Trump maintains control of the base, which will make his role in the midterms crucial. If Trump hopes to prevent a Democratic-controlled House — and the potential investigations that come with it — his voters will need to turn out for the GOP in November.
The president stumped for Republican North Carolina Senate candidate Michael Whatley late last year, and his advisers say he will spend more time criss-crossing the country this year. But without him on the ballot, will it be enough?
Happy New Year. Let’s chat: ahoward@politico.com or @andrewjfhoward.
Days until the TX-18 runoff: 26
Days until NJ-11 primary: 31
Days until the midterms: 302
Days until the 2028 election: 1,037
CAMPAIGN INTEL
VENEZUELA LATEST — “GOP hawks cheer Trump’s Maduro grab,” by POLITICO’s Joe Gould and Connor O’Brien.
… The top Democratic contenders to succeed Donald Trump in the Oval Office excoriated the president for his overnight strike on Venezuela on Saturday, sharply criticizing the president’s foreign policy and trying to drive a wedge between the president and voters wary of foreign entanglements, my colleagues Gregory Svirnovskiy and Samuel Benson report.
HEALTH CARE — “‘Mighty mad’: Democrats prepare to harness public anger over expired Obamacare subsidies,” by POLITICO’s Nicholas Wu.
RETIREMENT WATCH — Longtime Rep. Jim Clyburn (D-S.C.) told the Post and Courier’s Caitlin Byrd that watching some of his colleagues retire “gets you thinking.” “I’ll have to make up my mind whether or not to run — or where to run,” Clyburn said.
NJ-11 SPECIAL — Democrats are bullish that a laser-focus on the economy — which helped deliver wins across the country in 2025 — will buoy them in the midterms. But in one of the first major races of 2026, some candidates are betting that affordability messaging lends itself to a familiar issue — and one that Democrats have increasingly moved away from in recent years: democracy, my colleague Madison Fernandez reports.
Redistricting Roundup
NO NEW MAP — “Louisiana’s existing six congressional districts will be used for the 2026 midterm election after the U.S. Supreme Court did not rule in a case challenging their boundaries by the end of 2025,” the Lousiana Illuminator’s Piper Hutchinson reports.
WHAT A YEAR — Your host and POLITICO’s Adam Wren are out with a narrative recounting of the 2025 redistricting fight. Read it here. Poll Position
FIRST IN SCORE — CO-08 DEM PRIMARY: Evan Munsing is out with a new internal poll of CO-08 that shows him as the only Democrat with a lead over GOP Rep. Gabe Evans in a head-to-head matchup. The memo, shared first with Morning Score, did not include a poll of the primary. Change Research surveyed 534 likely voters online from Dec. 12-19. Read the full memo here.
THE CASH DASH
MAGA CASH — President Donald Trump’s primary super PAC raised over $102 million in the second half of 2025, carrying a war chest stocked with hundreds of millions of dollars into the midterms, POLITICO’s Aaron Pellish reported last week. The disclosure, which was reported in a filing submitted to the Federal Election Commission this week and goes through Dec. 22, shows MAGA Inc. with $294 million cash on hand. In a statement, a MAGA Inc. spokesperson said the PAC ended the year with $304 million cash on hand.
Market Data 
Markets 
AI
