Replies to post #438899 on Elite Pharmaceuticals Inc (ELTP)

[Mozy429]

Thank you. Appreciate your comment. I do hope they file generic Anda for the eloquis and agree that would be a great addition to the portfolio. I wonder if the buy out will be predicated on them successfully filing the ANDA which I think Nasrat said in q1 (assuming he means calendar Q1). There is some uncertainty there with when that could actually go to market for us. 2028 is a long time out. I really hope I'm not still in Eltp in 2028. lol. 

[Just give me $1.50]

Any reason for your post not including Generic OxyContin which is coming next year?

Acquisition price will depend on how far out they go to determine the terminal value. Is it 3 years, is it 5 years? We simply don't know. Even 3 years out, I'd expect Eliquis to be a huge money maker for the first year and then will taper off and still be a solid addition to our portfolio. Using estimated revenues in 2028 and DCF back to today, Vyvanse holds tremendous opportunity - no doubt about it.
The big question is how much more is it discounted since we don't have an ANDA filed or approved?
10% of a $2.7B drug (assume after stabilization) is $270M top line annually after launch ramp up. Back of the envelope, take 30% as flow through and throw on a conservative EBITDA multiple. Now discount back a few years. Even just one year of no quota hurdle would be sweet to see executed.