Thanks. My assessment? It sucks. Futures last post pretty much says it all. I would say, take a pick, turmoil with admin picks, social media (should just ban social media for everyone in admin), too many irons in the fire to get done before midterms. Everybody has a bullhorn and wants to emulate Trump style (or feel like they have to). This mentality is what is killing (or at least making more difficult) anything to be done. Like a self-inflicted filibuster by their own people.
Not sure why uplisting has not been done at this point. Very surprising. Seems like a slam dunk to get at least that done. Something is preventing that.
At the end of the day, it is still Trump that will make it happen (or not, depending on how much he cares to). I think that between your 87-yr old mother and my 88-yr old father, their guesses are as good an anyone's.
Yesterday was clearly brutal, thanks to Pulte and his childlike inexperience and stupid comments, and clearly unethical conduct.
Current shareholders of F2 have little to do with what happens next. It isn't about us (never was). If there is money to be made or have already been made (more specifically, by the big boys), it will be. It's a very speculative trade. PERIOD. High risk, high return potential.
Since I got into this trade my thought has always been I have a long term 5-year window (IF I stay in it).
I am still in it because of the obvious power Trump has politically. He seems to get what he wants, regardless of what he has to do to get it. I think he has until mid-term campaigns get going (NOT elections, by then too late) to make F2 deal actually happen, not just talk.
My position, which I took at the beginning of this year was to be out by May 2026, if it takes that long. My reasoning why I would be out (consider it a dead stick) at that point if it hasn't gone to at least $15:
1. Midterms won't be done, but pretty close to see the writing on the wall by that point.
2. Powell will be gone (Not that rates will drop whole points when he is). So, if no effect from his departure, bad sign.
3. If FNMA isn't uplisted by this time, politically, not looking good and probably won't happen.
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