Replies to post #127278 on Savvy Trades and Investments

[researcher59]

CI -52 to 247, looks oversold when considering that they beat estimates and maintained guidance .... I put it on my watchlist.

briefing -

The Cigna Group beats by $0.19, beats on revs; reaffirms FY25 EPS guidance (299.12 -9.29) :
Reports Q3 (Sep) earnings of $7.83 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.19 better than the FactSet Consensus of $7.64; revenues rose 9.5% year/year to $69.75 bln vs the $67.58 bln FactSet Consensus.
Co reaffirms guidance for FY25, sees EPS of at least $29.60, excluding non-recurring items, vs. $29.62 FactSet Consensus.
Co announced a new rebate-free pharmacy benefit model designed to lower costs, improve transparency, and support local pharmacies.

[SSKILLZ1]

CI

I brought CI Today at $248.12, like everything I purchased today it went lower after I brought it. shocking I know. LOL. But here is what I like.

1) CI is guiding for at least $29.60 This year, which means it is trading at roughly just 8X this years earnings. So very cheap.

2) CI pays a growing dividend albeit it not large at 2.4%+, but something. Also as part of the capital return they do have an active share buyback as well.

3) CI Said they will grow earnings in 2026. I think they will do about $31 next year, hence talk about an overreaction for a company that reiterated guidance and said they will grow earnings in 2026.

4) CI track record of EPS Growth, shows a consistent approach to growing earnings y/y, this kind of consistency and even with the headwinds of the changes with the PBM in another shocking development they said they would grow earnings in FY 26 as well.

FY 25 $29.60+ estimate
FY 24 $27.33
FY 23 $25.09
FY 22 $23.27
FY 21 $20.47
FY 20 $18.45

Now the big question Why did CI get destroyed today? The answer is simple they didn't like the transition of the PBM, because for the next two years that segment will have lower margins, than they expect it to grow from that point on. Now the other segments in 2026 will be at the high end of there growth outlooks which will lead to higher EPS in 2026 over 2025. But the market only cared about lower margins in the sector for the next two years. The way I look at it, is this move probably gets the heat off the PBM business, and the company will grow eps over the coming couple of year and than return to more of it's 12-15% growth rate in 2028. But they still be growing the next couple of years, and the company is not trading at 15x it is trading at just 8x this year earnings which is about as low as I ever seen it. To me this stock will get about 12x multiple again and I think they will do about $31 in FY 26, hence I think FV is in the $370-375 range about a 50%+ move from here, hence why I find it super attractive after the beatdown today. time will tell. I guess.

Conclusion: I Like CI here a lot and think if your patient it is a pretty good way to get a 40-50% return over the next 6-12 months. I will buy more on weakness. Time will tell. All is just my opinion, and I could always be wrong though.

[SSKILLZ1]

FOUR

I purchased Some FOUR today at $67.29, and in a really shocking development the stock went lower after i brought it. LOL. But without further ado here is what I like.

FOUR is a fantastic growth story in the payment space at 52 week lows. Analyst estimates are for this FY are $5.40 up from $3.89 the year before, with analyst estimates at $6.85 for the next FY, which at this point isn't that far away for a December year ender. This is less than 10x next year eps estimates, which is way too cheap for a company who is growing revs and earnings at this rapid rate. as you can see from the chart below that is rapid revenue growth, you don't generally get to buy revenue growth stories and eps growth stories like this at single digit PE on next year earnings estimates.

 
 FY 26 5.34 Billion (Analyst Estimate) 
 FY 25 4.25 Billon (Analyst estimate) 
 FY 24 3,300,600,000 
 FY 23 2,564,800,000 
 FY 22 1,993.600,000 
 FY 21 1,367,500,000 
 

Conclusion: I think FOUR is worthy of a 15X multiple conservatively considering how fast it grows. in the past we have seen it easily get a multiple in the 20's, but even at 15x, that would put FV around $102 using next year earnings estimates. That would be a 50%+ return over the next 6-12 month possibly. Hence I see a lot of upside in this growth story with a badly beaten up stock price. Time will tell. All is just my opinion, and I could always be wrong though.

[SSKILLZ1]

GLPI

Decided to take a chance on this one buying in at $42.96 before earnings yesterday we will see how the CC goes tomorrow, but If the earnings pr is any indication, things are going well with record results despite the company hitting 52 week lows yesterday. This company won't make you rich but I think there is decent upside in the stock price over the next 6-12 months, and you get paid a nice and growing dividend while you wait.

1) GLPI pay you roughly 7.3% which is a huge plus while you wait.

2) GLPI is a way to play the gaming sector with a good dividend yield and a reasonable valuation.

3) GLPI in my opinion should trade somewhere between 13x-15x next years estimates of AFFO which I believe will be close to $4.00 next year. Hence FV is probably in the mid 50's. That plus the 7.3% dividend yield could make it an attractive place to park some cash.

4) GLPI Consistent Trade record of AFFO Growth is impressive.

 
 FY 25 $3.86-3.88 Estimate 
 FY 24  $3.77 
 FY 23  $3.73 
 FY 22  $3.55 
 FY 21 $3.44 
 

Conclusion: GLPI is not the type of stock that will get you rich, but entering it at 52 week lows with a nice 7.3% dividend yield, with if anything AFFO Growth picking up speed, trading at a very reasonable multiple time AFFO, seems like a good place to park some cash. of course there is always a risk they say something I don't like during the CC, but at this point so far, I'm happy with my purchase and taking a chance on it before the bell yesterday. All is just my opinion, and I could always be wrong though.

[SSKILLZ1]

SSKMP Trades

Buy 500 Shares of MITP

Note that this is a fictional portfolio and is not a recommendation to buy or sell securities