My post did NOT state the IPO would not take place this year; only that it was not confirmed by Bessent to be doing so (during his interview with Maria). I hope it DOES take place, at least by November, but I do share your concern that some "scheme" or "structure" could possibly undermine current shareholders to some extent.
I would place the possibility of any kind of scheme like this on the Wall Street whores, and if some such scheme does occur it will be because U.S. Treasury lawyers and lifers who have their names and Treasury livelihood all over these c'ship agreements make it so by enforcing an unjust, egregious "liquidation preference" on FnF.
I do NOT see Trump, Pulte, or Bessent being in favor of something like this for a number of reasons, one of which is Ackman and Growth Fund of America's large positions in the current shares, as well as the large and growing number of institutional investors in current shares. You just NEVER know about lawyers (specifically, U.S. Treasury in this case) and the face-saving corruption of government officials (again, Treasury lifers, as mentioned above). There are other very clear reasons I believe Trump, Pulte, and Bessent would be against such a scheme, but I'll leave those for another day.
The initial "IPO" offer, which Bessent does confirm as being in the range of 3 to 6 percent of the "government's shares" is concerning and diluting enough by itself, but does NOT yet confirm warrant execution or their intention to take 79.9%. I am NOT against some captial raise to get this going, especially if it fully buys out the preferred shares, but I am TOTALLY against any dilution which undermines the current release value we KNOW is there and the massive long-term value we should gain from this investment. Anything that borders on doubling the current share counts or more should be viewed as outright theft - given the nearly $110 B overpayment these entities have made above the drawn amounts.
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