Replies to post #17515 on Keeping It Simple

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Prediction: This Artificial Intelligence (AI) Chip Stock Will Skyrocket After Aug. 27 (Hint: It's Not Nvidia)
By Adam Spatacco | August 23, 2025, 12:26 PM

https://finviz.com/news/148079/prediction-this-artificial-intelligence-ai-chip-stock-will-skyrocket-after-aug-27-hint-its-not-nvidia

Key Points
Accelerating AI infrastructure spending by hyperscalers and governments is a good indicator that GPU demand will remain high.

On the surface, Nvidia appears to be the chip company that's best positioned to benefit from rising AI infrastructure spending.

The growing demand for AI training and inference also bodes well for high bandwidth memory specialists like Micron.

On Wednesday, semiconductor giant Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) will release its second-quarter earnings report.

Between the advent of DeepSeek, shifting U.S. trade policies anchored by President Donald Trump's tariff agenda, and a fluid situation regarding its business in China, this has been the most challenging year of the artificial intelligence (AI) revolution yet for Nvidia. Despite the noise, however, recent developments suggest the AI chip behemoth remains firmly on track.

While Wall Street's attention will be focused on Nvidia's results, savvy investors may want to look elsewhere in the semiconductor space for potentially seismic stock moves next week. In particular, Micron Technology (NASDAQ: MU) is positioned to benefit handsomely if Nvidia delivers upbeat results, given that its mission-critical solutions are also part of the AI supply chain.

Let's discuss why Micron stock could skyrocket after Nvidia's Q2 report, and assess whether now would be a good time to scoop up shares.

Why Nvidia is going to crush its Q2 earnings

Over the past month, investors have gotten some previews of what to expect from Nvidia's upcoming earnings report. The hyperscalers -- Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, and Meta Platforms -- continue to make record-breaking capital expenditures to build out new data centers and cloud computing infrastructure.



AMZN Capital Expenditures (TTM) data by YCharts.

Much of this spending is directed toward infrastructure that can support AI -- including networking equipment, servers, and, most importantly, graphics processing units (GPUs), which remain Nvidia's core products.

Another bullish signal came from Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing. The world's largest third-party chip foundry recently reported a blowout quarter with $30 billion in revenue. Because TSMC is Nvidia's key foundry partner, Taiwan Semi's results can effectively be taken as a proxy for demand for Nvidia's GPUs.

When you combine robust AI spending from the hyperscalers with surging order flow at the top AI chip manufacturer, it points to one conclusion: Nvidia's Q2 earnings report is likely to deliver the kind of growth that will please even the most aggressive investors.

Micron is an under-the-radar way to invest in the AI infrastructure boom
While much of Nvidia's sales growth is being driven by hyperscalers' insatiable demand for GPUs, those chips don't operate in isolation. High-performance memory chips are also essential to handle the massive data loads generated by AI models -- and this is where Micron plays a pivotal role.

In addition, large-scale initiatives such as Project Stargate highlight just how expansive those data center buildouts have become. From cloud services providers to sovereign government AI projects, data centers are being designed with next-generation GPUs, advanced networking, and high-performance memory and storage.

Another important trend is the broadening scope of AI investments. The first wave focused on acquiring GPUs with which to train large language models (LLMs). The next wave is about deploying AI software into enterprise workflows. This shift requires more than just additional training power -- it demands hardware with more robust inference capabilities.

Inference workloads are memory-intensive, as they involve the processing of enormous volumes of real-time data. Micron's DRAM and high bandwidth memory (HBM) solutions are both designed to support these protocols, positioning the company as a critical player in the downstream adoption of AI.

Taken together, the surging capex from hyperscalers, megaprojects like Stargate, and the rise of AI inference workloads converge to show that demand for computing power is still rising. While GPUs may be the headline act of the AI infrastructure show, HBM is a key player backstage, ensuring that the show goes on.

For this reason, Micron will continue to benefit from the world's massive AI infrastructure outlays -- quietly capturing incremental revenue each time money is spent on GPUs, servers, and data center upgrades. As Nvidia's sales scale up further, Micron is positioned to scale up right alongside it -- and its shares could easily witness some pronounced buying on the heels of a positive report from Nvidia next week.


Image source: Getty Images.

Micron is trading at deep value levels compared to others in the semiconductor landscape
As the chart below illustrates, chip giants like Nvidia, Broadcom, TSM, and Advanced Micro Devices all trade at far richer valuations than Micron. That's because investors clearly see how surging demand for GPUs and networking equipment drives revenue and profits for these businesses.



MU PE Ratio (Forward) data by YCharts.

Where I think investors are missing the mark is in how they view Micron. It's true that the high bandwidth memory business is much different from the GPU business. GPUs function as the backbone of generative AI development, and each company's chips have unique value propositions. HBM is more commoditized.

That said, what investors may be overlooking is that each new dollar spent on AI GPUs designed by Nvidia and AMD and manufactured by TSMC multiplies the need for complementary solutions like high bandwidth memory to keep those accelerators running at maximum efficiency. Moreover, when you consider that Micron's HBM products are already integrated with Nvidia's flagship GPUs, it positions the company as a direct beneficiary of AI infrastructure spending.

Nevertheless, the valuation gap is striking. Micron's forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio sits well below those of its tangential peers, suggesting the market has yet to fully recognize the importance HBM will play in the next phase of AI growth. That's why I see Micron as an underappreciated opportunity when valued against the most obvious chip beneficiaries at the moment.

While the stock could exhibit some volatility in the short term, I don't recommend trying to "market time" your entry points. Instead, a more reliable strategy for investors to use is dollar-cost averaging -- gradually building a position in a stock by purchasing set dollar amounts at regular intervals.

Using this approach with Micron will allow investors to buy the stock at different prices while riding the long-term secular tailwinds of the AI infrastructure narrative.

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MU Gap 124.41 Pivot128.60 on 49 day cup and handle (MS lined w/ 160 tgt)

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Micron stock rises as Citi boosts price target ahead of earnings
Louis Juricic
Thu, September 11, 2025 at 6:49 AM MDT 1 min read

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/micron-stock-rises-citi-boosts-124901725.html

Investing.com -- Micron Technology (NASDAQ:MU) stock rose 3.6% in pre-market trading on Thursday after Citi analyst Christopher Danely raised his price target on the memory chip maker to $175 from $150 while maintaining a Buy rating.

The new target suggests 25% upside potential and comes ahead of Micron’s fiscal fourth quarter earnings report scheduled for September 23. Danely expects Micron to report in-line results but guide well above consensus for the first quarter, driven by higher DRAM and NAND sales and pricing.

"We believe the continued memory upturn is being driven by limited production and better than expected demand, particularly from the data center end market," Danely wrote in a note to clients. The analyst’s fiscal 2026 earnings per share estimate is 26% above consensus.

The positive outlook comes as demand from the artificial intelligence sector has reportedly increased sharply. Morgan Stanley also highlighted NAND’s growing importance in AI applications, estimating that the AI NAND market will account for 34% of the global NAND market by 2029, adding an incremental $29 billion to the total addressable market.

Micron, one of the main global NAND suppliers alongside Samsung, SK Hynix, Kioxia, and Western Digital, has been gaining market share in enterprise solid-state drives (eSSD) in recent years. According to Morgan Stanley, Micron’s revenue share in this segment is now approaching that of the combined SK hynix/Solidigm, despite the company’s historically smaller scale in NAND production.

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MU cpps 156.86

+141.40% 4/8

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MU cpps 169.45 Reports 9/23 A

160.51% on 65's (Lows/keep)
76% on 96's (Highs/take)

Start taking as they go LTg's or can just STg them now?
9/25/25 and 11/15/25 to LT

DBAATTFG,J

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Microns hot streak is ending but here's what matters next for the stock - Market Watch

Micron reports earnings on Tuesday - and investors will be looking to see how bullish the company's commentary is, and whether high-bandwidth-memory prices are locked in through next year

Micron's stock rose more than 40% across the last 12 sessions.

After a 12-session run of gains that was its longest in more than 16 years, Micron Technology Inc.'s stock rally is finally cooling.

The stock (MU) was off 3.5% in afternoon trading Friday, on track to snap that winning streak that drove it more than 40% higher.
A critical moment for investors arrives next week, when the memory-chip maker will report its fiscal fourth-quarter results. Wall Street is already expecting a beat-and-raise performance on Tuesday, some analysts say - so the bigger issues will be the magnitude of the beat, the strength of Micron's commentary going forward, and whether all that is enough to meet the high expectations set by the stock near doubling over the course of 2025 to date.

TD Cowen's Krish Sankar wrote Friday that he thinks Micron could deliver November-quarter guidance that exceeds Wall Street's expectations by 15%. His primary question is whether the company has already locked in pricing for high- bandwidth-memory products for all of the next calendar year, which would be a positive development.

He'll also be keeping an eye on the company's margin commentary, as memory prices continue to move higher. Sankar sees the potential for gross margins to reach the high-40% range in the November quarter before heading above 50% in the February and May quarters. The company posted a 39% adjusted gross margin in the last May quarter.

Sankar lifted his price target on Micron shares to $180 from $150 in his Thursday note to clients. The stock recently changed hands at near $163 .

Susquehanna's Medhi Hosseini is even more bullish, with $200 price target established earlier this week. While a beat-and-raise performance likely has been priced into Micron's stock in light of the recent momentum, Hosseini doesn't think shares fully
reflect the potential for Micron to deliver $20 in annualized earnings per share down the road, by the end of 2026. The FactSet consensus is only for $14 .

He thinks Micron can see higher average selling prices and gross margins into next year, "supported by mix of high- value products and favorable supply/demand dynamics."

Chip stocks have been hot in general lately, with the PHLX Semiconductor Index SOX up about 10% over the course of September to date. Mizuho desk-based analyst Jordan Klein said he thought Micron's report would be a major driver of sector momentum "based on how bullish they sound" and how bullish the guidance is.

- Emily Bary

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Micron: Fiscal Q4 Earnings Snapshot
16:22:00 PM ET, 09/23/2025 - Associated Press

BOISE, Idaho (AP) — BOISE, Idaho (AP) — Micron Technology Inc. (MU) on Tuesday reported fiscal fourth-quarter net income of $3.2 billion.

On a per-share basis, the Boise, Idaho-based company said it had profit of $2.83. Earnings, adjusted for one-time gains and costs, were $3.03 per share.

The results exceeded Wall Street expectations. The average estimate of seven analysts surveyed by Zacks Investment Research was for earnings of $2.86 per share.

The chipmaker posted revenue of $11.32 billion in the period, also beating Street forecasts. Six analysts surveyed by Zacks expected $11.26 billion.

For the year, the company reported profit of $8.54 billion, or $7.59 per share. Revenue was reported as $37.38 billion.

For the current quarter ending in November, Micron expects its per-share earnings to range from $3.60 to $3.90.

The company said it expects revenue in the range of $12.2 billion to $12.8 billion for the fiscal first quarter.

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MU gap 192.88

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MU cpps 202.96
+212.12% on lowest set 65's (ST urgs/ apr)
Possible plan: Not determined: Cull 1 high set 95's +112.91% on CapProtect into fall
(LT gains) and hold lows (ST urstg's into 2026 for LT) with a Rebuild if drops

Track

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MU 220.93 -13.73

(and so it begins?)

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MU 239.14 + 21.10 (+9.67%)

267.86 % since 4/8/25

(65 to 239.10)

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Arete Adjusts Micron Technology Price Target to $280 From $230, Maintains Buy Rating
07:37:28 AM ET, 11/11/2025 - MT Newswires


-- Micron Technology (MU) has an average rating of Buy and mean price target of $220.05, according to analysts polled by FactSet.

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CRM vs MU TRK pps

11-12-25

245.95 CPPS


246.23 CPPS

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MU 259.29 +12.27

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MU cpps 219.94

50d SMA curr 199.23
100d EMA curr 172.33
and 200 day 126.55

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Micron Stock Drops after company dumps "crucial" business - Barrons.com

Micron Technology is exiting its consumer business. The memory-chip company is putting all its bets on artificial- intelligence. The stock was down 1.6% in the Thursday premarket.

Micron said Wednesday that it would stop selling Crucial-branded consumer memory products at the end of February 2026 . It will continue to honor warranties and provide support for existing product.

The move comes as Micron works to ramp up supply of memory-chip components for AI hardware. In particular, a form of chip called high-bandwidth memory (HBM) is necessary as a component of the latest processors from the likes of Nvidia. Micron is in a race with South Korean rivals SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics to supply HBM chips and other components to AI semiconductor companies.

That huge surge in AI demand is transforming the memory-chip industry. Samsung temporarily stopped announcing contract prices for some memory-chip products last month as spot prices tripled, according to Taiwanese publication DigiTimes

Research firm TrendForce expects conventional DRAM -- dynamic random access memory -- prices to rise between 18% and 23% in the fourth quarter.

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Micron Technology analyst lifts price target to $300 ahead of earnings

Faizan Farooque
Mon, December 15, 2025 at 4:36 AM MST 1 min read

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/micron-technology-analyst-lifts-price-113636525.html

Micron Technology (MU, Financials) saw a higher price target ahead of its fiscal first-quarter earnings, as an analyst pointed to firmer memory pricing and sustained demand tied to artificial intelligence workloads.

Vijay Rakesh of Mizuho Securities boosted his price objective on Micron to $300 from $195 and retained a Buy rating. The revised objective offers around 24% upside from current trading levels.

Rakesh said that traditional DRAM prices were strong, going from 15% to 20% from one quarter to the next because of restricted supply and rising demand. He thinks that margins would grow as the DRAM market keeps getting better until 2026.

The analyst also noted Micron's leadership in high-bandwidth memory used in AI accelerators, sustaining margins exceeding 30%. The rise of AI data centers has also led to more demand for NAND flash goods.

Micron is going to release its first-quarter fiscal figures on Wednesday after the market closes. Wall Street forecasts adjusted profits per share of $3.93, up from $1.79 a year earlier, with sales anticipated to grow around 45% to $12.82 billion.

Investors will turn to management comments on pricing and AI demand as the next trigger for the stock.

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Microns Monster 2025 Run Meets its biggest quarter Yet - and the stock is slipping

Benzinga newswire

Micron Technology Inc.'s (NASDAQ:MU) stock is sliding into first quarter earnings — not because the AI memory story is cracking, but because expectations have finally caught up. After a 166% year-to-date rally, MU is coming off its highs, down nearly 9% over the past five days, setting up what may be the most consequential quarter of the cycle.

This isn't Micron's biggest quarter because of its size — it's the biggest because it's the first time the AI-memory thesis must show up clearly in margins, forward guidance, and valuation expectations after a 166% rally.

From Momentum To Measurement
Micron is no longer trading like a recovery play. The stock has surged from cycle lows near $60 to a 52-week high above $260, pushing valuation toward a 30x earnings multiple. That shift matters. The market isn't just rewarding improving conditions anymore — it's demanding proof that pricing power and mix are structurally better.
This quarter is where that proof has to show up. Investors are watching whether higher-priced DRAM and HBM shipments translate into sustained margin expansion, not just revenue growth tied to tight supply.

Why The Stock Is Pulling Back
The recent weakness doesn't signal fading demand. It looks more like positioning risk after a massive run. When a stock is up 93% over six months and slips nearly 4% over the past month, it often reflects profit protection — not a broken thesis.
At this stage of the cycle, "good" results are no longer a catalyst. They're the baseline.

Guidance Is The Real Test
What matters most isn't the print — it's the outlook. After a 166% year-to-date run, Micron is no longer graded on whether demand is improving, but on whether pricing power and margins hold up through fiscal 2026. With DRAM and HBM prices rising and industry supply remaining tight, investors are looking for guidance that confirms this isn't a one-quarter surge, but a sustained earnings ramp.
That's where the risk lies. Even a headline beat could fall flat if management signals normalization, slower margin expansion, or a cautious second-half setup. At these levels, the bar isn't "good" — it's convincing. Anything short of that invites a sell-the-news reaction, especially after a rally this steep.

What's At Stake
This earnings report will decide whether Micron remains a momentum leader — or transitions into a valuation-sensitive phase where execution matters more than narrative.
After a run this sharp, the AI memory story doesn't get graded on belief anymore. It gets graded on numbers

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Micron Technology Beats First-Quarter Views as Cloud Memory Revenue Doubles
04:39:22 PM ET, 12/17/2025 - MT Newswires
04:39 PM EST, 12/17/2025 (MT Newswires) -- Micron Technology's (MU) fiscal Q1 results surpassed Wall Street's estimates as the semiconductor maker's cloud memory revenue nearly doubled year-on-year.

Adjusted earnings per share jumped to $4.78 during the quarter ended Nov. 27 from $1.79 the year before, compared with the average FactSet analyst estimate of $3.96. Revenue climbed to $13.64 billion from $8.71 billion, surpassing the Street's $12.91 billion view.

Shares rose 5% in after-hours trade on Wednesday.

Revenue from the cloud memory business soared to $5.28 billion from $2.65 billion, while mobile and client sales rose to $4.26 billion from $2.61 billion. Core data center and automotive and embedded revenue also logged gains.

Earlier this week, Wedbush Securities expected Micron to beat quarterly estimates, saying better memory industry conditions could dictate a bigger-than-expected increase in average selling prices.

Spot prices of dynamic random-access memory, or DRAM, logged sharp gains in September and October, while NAND flash memory also benefited from a similar increase in pricing as of late, Wedbush analysts, including Matt Bryson, wrote in a Monday note.

DRAM is a memory architecture used by a majority of computers, servers, and electronics.

For the current quarter, adjusted earnings are forecast at $8.42 per share, plus or minus $0.20. Revenue is pegged at $18.70 billion, plus or minus $400 million.

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MU to gap up on open/ +32.88 cpps preT at 258.20

Gap 237.45

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MU- You are nuts!

Which, is ok.

237.45 gap
50 day 222.24
200d 141.40

Very spread and still plugging along.
Amazing fundamentals
3608 funds
cash flow 15.88
p/e 22
from .42 eps to 4.78 EPS in 8 q's
from 5.8b in sales to 13.6b in 8 q's
ROE 19%
EPS 2025 8.29 with EPS est for 2026 at 30.57 (Ibd source)

She's impressive.

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MU and NVDA

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MU current PPS at 309.84

+376%
+242%
+221.97%

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Micron's (MU) 2026 Outlook Strengthens as Memory Pricing Improves
By Vardah Gill | January 02, 2026, 7:41 PM

https://finviz.com/news/266526/microns-mu-2026-outlook-strengthens-as-memory-pricing-improves

Micron Technology, Inc. (NASDAQ:MU) is included among the 20 Best Performing Dividend Stocks in 2025.

Micron’s (MU) 2026 Outlook Strengthens as Memory Pricing Improves
Micron Technology, Inc. (NASDAQ:MU) operates in a corner of the tech market that rarely gets the spotlight. AI discussions usually center on software models or data center scale. The memory chips that make those systems work tend to get overlooked, even as shortages become harder to ignore. That disconnect helps explain the stock’s move.

Micron Technology, Inc. (NASDAQ:MU) shares are up about 238% in 2026, more than tripling in a short period of time. The rally looks dramatic, but it tracks what is happening underneath the surface. Demand for memory has tightened, pricing has improved, and the company’s revenue and earnings have followed.

The latest earnings report added fuel. On December 17, the company released fiscal 2026 first-quarter results for the period ending November 27. The numbers pointed to a strong start to the year and reinforced the idea that this cycle still has room to run. One detail stood out in particular. Micron and its peers are preparing for sustained demand, not a brief spike.

That shows up clearly in spending plans. Micron Technology, Inc. (NASDAQ:MU) lifted its fiscal 2026 capital expenditure forecast to $20 billion, up from $18 billion before. To put that in perspective, the company spent $13.8 billion in the prior fiscal year. Companies do not make that kind of jump unless they see demand sticking around. The current supply and demand setup appears durable into 2026. That backdrop continues to support the company’s business and, by extension, the stock.

Micron Technology, Inc. (NASDAQ:MU) designs, manufactures, and sells memory and storage products, primarily DRAM and NAND flash. Its chips are used across computers, smartphones, data centers, automotive systems, and industrial applications.

[eastunder]

MU

1-4-26

315.42

Micron Tech (Nasd: MU)

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