Assuming that people can tell that they are on the placebo arm and then feign side effects to justify discontinuing or dropping out, then the "real" placebo side effects are lower, so the active arms have higher "real" side effects compared to the placebo. That may help explain the bafflingly high side effects in the placebo arm, but it is not as favorable for VKTX as Brian's explanation that people are conditioned to expect these side effects, and thus both arms may have overreported them.
My belief/hope that the market overreacted is because (a) they will figure dose regiments to avoid/manage the side effects; and (b) this is a good team having an efficacious drug in a huge market that will do ok even without a tolerability advantage. After today, however, I'd happily take $50/share in a buyout... (FWIW, my average cost is almost $30)
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