Replies to post #1125 on Caterpillar Inc (CAT)

[DewDiligence]

CAT updates tariff-headwind guidance:

https://www.sec.gov/ix?doc=/Archives/edgar/data/0000018230/000110465925084800/tm2524597d1_8k.htm

Based on the changes and clarifications announced since August 5, 2025 and expected to be in place as of August 31, 2025, the Company now expects the net impact from incremental tariffs introduced in 2025 will be between approximately $500 million to $600 million for the third quarter and approximately $1.5 to $1.8 billion for 2025.

The prior guidance (from 8/5/25) was $1.3-1.5B, so the new guidance is an increase of $200M at the low end of the range and $300M at the high end.

[DewDiligence]

CAT reports record 3Q25 sales—updates guidance for tariff headwind:

https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/caterpillar-reports-third-quarter-2025-results-302598229.html

• 2025 incremental tariffs are now expected to cost the company $1.6-1.75B, up from the prior guidance of $1.3-1.5B three months ago; the new guidance implies $650-$800M during 4Q25. Almost all of the incremental tariffs come from imported parts rather than finished goods.

• 3Q25 sales (excluding CAT Financial revenue) were a record $16.73B, +10 YoY. The 10% YoY increase was comprised of: volume +10%; pricing -1%; and currency +1%.

• 2Q25 sales in the Construction segment (comprising 40% of non-financial corporate sales) were $6.76B, +7% YoY.

• 2Q25 sales in the Resources Industries (mining equipment) segment (comprising 19% of non-financial corporate sales) were $3.11B, +2% YoY.

• 2Q25 sales in the Energy & Transportation segment (comprising 50% of non-financial corporate sales) were $8.40B, +17% YoY. This is the business segment that makes reciprocating engines to power AI data centers (#msg-176770236).

Note: The three business segments above sum to more than 100% of corporate non-financial sales due to inter-segment sales, which are removed from the total sales number.

• 2Q25 GAAP EPS was $4.88, down from $5.06 in 2Q24. The decrease was primarily due to an increase in the 3Q25 tax rate and a discrete tax item during the quarter.

• 2Q25 non-GAAP EPS, which excludes restructuring costs, was $4.95, down from $5.17 in 3Q24 for the same reasons as above.

CAT does not provide specific guidance for sales or EPS, but it stated today that full-year 2025 sales are expected to be “moderately” up from 2024, an upgrade relative to the prior guidance that 2025 would be “slightly” up.


3Q25 CC slides:
https://investors.caterpillar.com/files/doc_financials/2025/q3/3Q-2025-Analyst-Slide-Deck-vFinal.pdf