Nelson- That's why I took out 90% of gains by 2023
From 2004 to 2017, I was flying high. I mean even with the horrible 2008 & 2011, I was up 45%-50%/year on average for those 14 years. I knew though, that my style of being highly concentrated, and taking on 50%+ margin was aggressive, and that I had been very fortunate to have a strategy that worked out so well for so long. So in late 2017, after a 4 bagger on AAOI, I decided to take out 70% or so. With the 30% I left myself, I did well overall till the end of 2022, and in fact was still up around 35%- 40%/year on average from 2004 to end of 2022. Then in 2023, I stayed on the short side, and things went very bad. Around Oct of 2023, I decided I'd better take out even more, and only left myself around 10% to play with. However I then proceeded to lose around 90% of that this year, thus far ! Wadegarret portfolio was at almost $300K on Jan 1, 2025, and is now around $50K ! The most heartbreaking fact of all this is, my losses in 2025 have been 95% on the long side ! From 2004 to 2017(playing 100% long), I was correct around 70% of the time on my picks, and my % gains on a given stock were hugely more than my % losses. In 2025, I have been right around 10% of the time, and my % losses on any give stock have been hugely more than my % gains !
Bottom line is, it's a real good thing that I banked gains back in 2017 & 2023, or I'd be broke today !
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