Hyperbolic, contrafactual, horseshit.
Think they can just come up and make some insincere promises every 4 yrs and continue down the status quo road.............
What signals suggest the economic growth under Biden might slow down in the coming months (future implications)
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Several signals suggest that the robust economic growth observed under Biden may slow down in the coming months, with implications for both near-term prospects and longer-run performance:
Leading Economic Indicators Are Flashing Warnings
The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index (LEI) has been declining steadily through the first half of 2025, falling by 2.8%—a notably sharp drop compared to previous periods. The latest data shows continued weakness in consumer expectations, manufacturing orders, rising initial unemployment claims, and fewer building permits, all of which typically precede economic slowdowns. The Conference Board has officially triggered a recession signal for the third straight month, although they are not forecasting an outright recession—just a pronounced deceleration in growth.
Forecasts Consistently Point to Slower Growth
Most major forecasters (Deloitte, EY, University of Michigan) estimate real GDP growth will slow significantly in late 2025 and into 2026, with growth rates falling from near 2.8% in 2024 to a range of 0.8–1.6% for 2025 and further to 1.4–1.5% in 2026. The IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook acknowledges the U.S. is still growing but with persistent uncertainty shadowing the future.
Specific Risks and Drag Factors
Tariffs and Import Costs: New and extended tariffs are now feeding into higher core goods prices, with inflationary impacts increasingly being passed through to consumers. While early “frontrunning” of purchases led to temporarily subdued inflation, analysts expect tariff effects to linger and further dampen consumer spending in the coming months.
Policy Uncertainty and Fiscal Strain: While the passage of key fiscal legislation (“One Big Beautiful Bill”) removed some uncertainty, the sizable fiscal cost (over $3.4 trillion) raises market concerns about debt sustainability, upward pressure on interest rates, and potential crowd-out of private investment. Deficits are expected to remain historically high, limiting policy flexibility.
Labor Market Signs: Job cut announcements and unemployment claims have started to rise, even if from low levels. Job gains are slowing compared to the previous year, and a decline in new hiring is being reported among some sectors, especially small businesses and the public sector. The unemployment rate remains low, but the composition of job growth has become more fragile, relying heavily on large firms and wealthier households.
Household and Small Business Pressure: The brunt of the slowdown is disproportionately hitting lower- and middle-income families and smaller businesses, which could reduce the broad base of demand that has supported growth thus far.
Consumer Pessimism: Ongoing negative consumer sentiment, as measured by major indices, suggests households remain wary about inflation, job security, and new policy changes, which may further suppress spending going forward.
Structural and Demographic Challenges
A slowdown in immigration, tighter labor policies, and an aging population will likely constrain workforce growth, which contributes to lower potential output in the medium term.
These signals combine to suggest that, even as major metrics remain positive for now, the U.S. economy is poised for substantially slower growth—possibly well below the rates achieved at the height of the post-pandemic recovery under Biden. Policy actions, both fiscal and trade-related, along with persistent uncertainty and structural forces, will determine how sharply this deceleration materializes in late 2025 and beyond.
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