Replies to post #255682 on Biotech Values

[WorstLuck]

Tender offer extended by one day to allow shares that were tendered by notice of guaranteed delivery that had not yet been officially recieved to be "received". Total of of validly tendered and yet to be officially received is more than 80% of shares outstanding.
https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2025/07/17/3116948/0/en/Press-Release-Sanofi-announces-extension-of-Blueprint-tender-offer.html

Continental Stock Transfer & Trust Company, the depositary for the offer, has advised Sanofi that as of 23:59 EDST, on July 16, 2025, approximately 29,742,419 shares, representing approximately 45.85% of the total outstanding shares of Blueprint, have been validly tendered (and not validly withdrawn) pursuant to the offer. In addition, approximately 23,400,152 shares have been tendered by notice of guaranteed delivery, representing approximately 36.08% of the outstanding shares of Blueprint. Shares tendered by notice of guaranteed delivery are not deemed validly tendered for purposes of satisfying the minimum tender condition in the offer unless and until the shares underlying such notice of guaranteed delivery are delivered to and “received” (as such term is defined in 251(h) of the Delaware General Corporation Law) by the depositary prior to the time of expiration of the offer. Holders that have previously tendered their shares do not need to re-tender their shares or take any other action in response to this extension.

In the fwiw department, my guess is that if you were to assign all or nearly all of the excess risk in the inferred pricing to execution risk (Sanofi) the discount rate would likely be at least 100% annualized. If you were to assign all or nearly all the excess risk to the clinical side, then the chance of advancing based on p2(a) results seems at best 25%.