Replies to post #834911 on Fannie Mae-No Politics (FNMA)

[BREAKER098]

Every single one of your numbers is wrong. Go figure...

[FrostyEmpire44]

it wouldnt be 10 Billion shares fully diluted...it would be 1.16B x 5 if warrants exercised in full.

which is closer to 6Billion shares. Another issues people assume is all that money goes to the govt.. Likely some would go to the Capital Requirements. which would raise the value per share as well.

Ackman provides some of the better math...but his numbers are dated by a couple years now..because FnF are raising the capital they need.

So initial value puts FnF probably in the 40-50ish range at full share dilution..just on book value..

No warrants being executed is very low probability...All Warrants being executed is possible...but I would expect something less than that.. Half being executed makes the price target much higher.

Honestly it boils down to how much the govt will loot of releasing the GSEs.

The thing that tips this is the investor's favor is the Big Money will not buy into this if the government attempts to loot too much of the GSE exit from conservatorship.

The bottom line is the GSEs are worth way more than the current trading price. The bottom of the range is 3x more...the top of the range is 20-30 times more.