With ally Iran under attack, Hezbollah stays out of the fray for now
Repeat: Iran, Israel and The Big War | Four Corners
The stance has been met with relief by war-weary in Lebanon, but there is still a possibility Hezbollah could change its position if Iran’s regime starts to wobble.
June 18, 2025
In Beirut on Wednesday, mourners visit the burial site of Hezbollah's late leader Hasan Nasrallah, who was killed in an Israeli airstrike in September. (Wael Hamzeh/EPA-EFE/Shutterstock)
By Mohamad El Chamaa, Suzan Haidamous and Kareem Fahim
BEIRUT — Hezbollah is holding its fire during Iran’s conflict with Israel as it faces domestic pressure not to drag a fragile Lebanon into war and bets the violence does not yet threaten the survival of its longtime patron, diplomats and people close to the group said.
The Iranian-backed group’s quiescence is also a practical matter: Its cadres and weapons stocks were badly battered during a war with Israel last year that killed many of Hezbollah’s senior commanders, including its longtime leader, Hasan Nasrallah.
Hezbollah, long considered the most powerful non-state actor in the world, was the linchpin of the Iranian-allied “axis of resistance,” or its regional proxy forces, and a deterrent against any Israeli attack on Iran.
The group’s current stance has been met with relief by war-weary in Lebanon, as well as a new government that is trying to rebuild the country while bringing Hezbollah’s arms under the control of the state. But there is still a possibility it could change its position if Iran’s regime starts to wobble, officials and people close to the group said.
Hezbollah’s decision to stand down was positive for Lebanon’s stability, but there were concerns that the group might still have a threshold for taking action, said a diplomat in Lebanon who spoke on the condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the topic.
Qassim Qassir, a political analyst close to Hezbollah, said the group felt no urgent need to engage on Iran’s behalf at the moment but said that could change if the conflict escalates.
“Everything is on the table,” Qassir said. “Nothing is off limits.”
In statements since Israel attacked Iran last week, Hezbollah has praised its ally’s “steadfastness” and warned that Israel will be punished, but it stopped short of vowing to intervene. Its decision to hold fire was in sharp contrast to its quick response after its ally Hamas attacked Israel on Oct. 7, 2023. The following day, Hezbollah began firing missiles into northern Israel in solidarity with the Palestinian militant group.
In a statement Friday, Naim Qassem, Hezbollah’s leader, said Israel’s “aggression will have major repercussions on regional stability and will not pass without a response and punishment.” Hezbollah will “hold firmly to our path and resistance” and support Iran in “all steps and measures it takes in defense of itself,” he said.
The Israeli army struck the Dahiyeh suburb of Beirut. (Hassan Ammar/AP)
Lebanon has struggled to recover from the fighting between Israel and Hezbollah last year, which intensified in September and ended with a shaky ceasefire in late November. The conflict, including Israeli strikes that devastated villages in the south and swaths of Beirut’s southern suburbs, cost the country an estimated $14 billion in physical damage and economic losses, according to the World Bank. Recovery and reconstruction will cost an additional $11 billion, according to estimates.
Inflation that took hold during a long economic crisis that predated the fighting continues to grip the country. Hopes for a robust tourist season have so far been dashed, both by continuing Israeli strikes in Lebanon and now the escalating crisis in Iran.
In viral videos posted by Lebanese citizens, Iran’s ballistic missiles can be seen soaring over the country, sometimes during outdoor parties, in a country trying to regain its balance. In one of the videos, Alain Otayek, a saxophone player, is shown soloing at a rooftop bar outside Beirut as patrons capture the missiles on their phones.
“I saw people pull their phones out, and I looked up and saw the missiles. I felt I needed to continue playing so I can give the people some peace,” he said. “Everyone is worried it will happen again. We thought last year would be the last time we had war and that this summer would be great.”
Lebanon’s new technocratic government, led by Prime Minister Nawaf Salam,a former president of the International Court of Justice, has struggled to attract investment or major pledges of aid from Lebanon’s wealthy Persian Gulf neighbors.
Salam, speaking during a cabinet meeting Monday, condemned the “dangerous Israeli aggression” against Iran. But at home, there was a need to “continue working to consolidate stability, particularly in the south, and to prevent Lebanon from being dragged or implicated in any way in the ongoing regional war,” he said.
A Lebanese official who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss private conversations said that Hezbollah, along with Palestinian factions in Lebanon, were given a message that “Lebanon is not a participant” in the Iran-Israel conflict and that no attacks should be carried out from its territory. The response was “positive,” and assurances were given against any intervention, the official said.
There were “concerns regarding Hezbollah’s actual capacity for confrontation,” the official added, saying it still possessed stocks of missiles but would struggle to launch them, given Israel’s constant aerial surveillance. The Israelis were “prepared to target any weapon depots and movement at any second,” the official said.
Hezbollah was also trying to recover after its last battle. Its expenditures were increasing from providing financial aid to supporters affected by the last war, while sources of revenue were under strain. The new government had tried to curtail money the group received through Beirut’s airport, and smuggling routes through Syria had become more inaccessible after the toppling of Bashar al-Assad, Hezbollah’s deposed ally.
“We believe Hezbollah needs to continue holding its breath and not interfering, no matter how bad the escalation is going to be,” said Ghassan Skaf, an independent member of parliament, who released a statement praising Hezbollah after meeting with Lebanon’s president Wednesday.
The group was “weak now, and they don’t want to initiate any action” that would make them unpopular in Lebanon, he said. In the group’s current state, military intervention would be ineffective and “everybody’s going to be upset with them, and they can destroy the country. So it’s a lose-lose situation,” Skaf said.
But if the confrontation between Israel and Iran turned into a regional war, “this could be a different situation,” he said.
During Hezbollah’s last war with Israel, there had been grumbling among some of the Lebanese group’s supporters that Iran had not been proactive enough in coming to Hezbollah’s aid — complaints that started to circulate after the killing of Nasrallah in a massive Israeli strike.
Qassir, the analyst, said such complaints had no bearing on Hezbollah’s current position. For decades, Tehran “has provided Hezbollah with military, financial and expert support, but cannot fight on their behalf,” he said. “Hezbollah will never abandon Iran.”
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