10% tariffs - if that is where we wind up - will not be very noticed
and while it seems like a small difference - it is 100% more --- 20% tariffs (especially on cheap goods producer China) will add 1-2 % points to the CPI - and push mortgage rates - via market action to over 7%
The TACO so far makes it hard to judge - but if importers are importing (v waiting) at 30% ---- inflation will follow. Watch for the June CPI. (note oil is going up which will make gasoline go up. I have no idea why prices of oil are going up - as the US continues is multi year massive world leading production and OPEC is allowing more and more oil to come to market. It makes no sense to me. (Right now - new drilling or whatever is not impacting one way or the other as US oil companies love the high prices and will do nothing on purpose to reduce prices and profit. Lower gasoline may well come if OPEC decides to beat up on the cheating countries that are exceeding their quotas by pumping and putting on the market TONS of oil (they produce at 1/3 current market price)
If hasn’t happened for you yet, then you don’t know this play. I can tell you this, the tariff will have no impact because none of the tariffs have been fully implemented. On off again negotiations seemed to have worked against the biggest adversary. The EU will fold like a cheap suit now. We don’t need them as much, they lost a lot of cards now that China got inline.
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